J.D. Power: Strong Fleet Sales, Retail Stability to Push Up Nov. SAAR

November 20, 2009

Email this story Printer Friendly Version

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. — Thanks to a steady retail market and improvements on the fleet side, November's new-vehicle sales — based on selling-day adjustments — are projected to climb modestly from a year ago, with the seasonally adjusted annualized rate expected to climb year-over-year to 10.2 million, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

More specifically, total new-vehicle sales — including fleet and retail — are expected reach 687,800 units, a 0.4-percent year-over-year increase (when adjusted for two fewer selling days in November 2009). The expected November SAAR of 10.2 million is up from 10.1 million in November 2008.

Breaking it down, J.D. Power projects new-retail sales to come in at 547,800 vehicles for the month, off 0.4 percent (adjusted for selling days) from a year ago. Meanwhile, fleet sales are likely to jump 3.5 percent year-over-year.

"The expected November selling rate of 10.2 million units is higher compared with one year ago, driven by a stable retail environment and higher fleet volume," stated Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power.

"On a selling day-adjusted basis, total sales are forecasted to be up slightly compared with last year-further signaling an industry on the mend," he continued.

Looking at individual segments, J.D. Power anticipates that CUV sales will represent a fourth of the month's retail sales volume, marking the highest share for the segment since it debuted 14 years ago.

Meanwhile, even though there has been strong attention paid to the small-car segment as of late, analysts said the retail market share for trucks is projected to be 51 percent for the month, compared to 43 percent back in August, which marked a year-and-a-half low.

"As expected, the recovery has been slow, but is progressing," noted Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power.

"The industry is exhibiting a higher level of discipline, as there is a favorable sales ratio of 2010 models to 2009 models and a diminished risk of excess inventory," he continued. "As a result, transaction prices are at their highest levels in years, indicating a healthier close for the fourth quarter."

Looking forward, J.D. Power is keeping its full-year total new-vehicle sales forecast at 10.3 million units. However, it has lowered its retail projections by 100,000 units to 8.5 million.