Contrary to what some analysts are projecting, the National Automobile Dealers Association’s chief economist is thinking new-vehicles sales will close out this year strong.

NADA’s Paul Taylor sent out a statement late last week on the heels of firms such as J.D. Power and Associates shaving their expectations for where the 2011 SAAR might land.

“Over the past 10 days, global stock markets have declined dramatically, which has rattled consumer confidence and has car shoppers thinking twice about purchasing new automobiles,” Taylor acknowledged.

“When consumers discover that the economy is still growing in the U.S. and Europe, although slowly, consumer confidence will improve,” he continued.

“As a result of the current economic conditions, several analysts have reduced their sales forecasts between the current year-to-date rate of 12.5 million new cars and light trucks and NADA’s forecast of 12.9 million,” Taylor went on to say. “Many manufacturers still predict light-vehicle sales could be as high as 13 million this year.”

Another factor Taylor expects to strengthen is automakers returning to conditions seen before the Japanese natural disasters back in March.

“New-vehicle inventory is expected to return to reasonable levels in September, which will provide car shoppers with more choices of cars and trucks,” Taylor insisted.

And the NADA economist thinks the situation will brighten for buyers who need financing.

“Auto loan rates for new cars will remain attractive this fall as a result of meager economic growth,” Taylor surmised.

Taylor closed his comments by touching on both high-end and middle-of-the-road purchasers who might be heading to franchise showrooms.

“Depending on what happens on Wall Street, luxury car sales will either increase or decrease in the coming months,” Taylor projected.

“Consumers on Main Street will still need reliable cars to drive to work, and with the average age of cars and light trucks at 10.6 years old, manufacturer incentives increasing this fall and more inventory, new-car sales should increase in the last four months of the year,” he continued.

To read more about what prompted J.D. Power to cut its sales forecast, Auto Remarketing has the details here.