WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. -

When automakers begin reporting May results today, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate for retail new-vehicle sales likely won’t reach the 9.5 million unit level, according to J.D. Power and Associates. The last time the industry failed to hit this mark was nine months ago.

The overall SAAR is expected to miss the 12 million unit mark, the firm projected.

Automakers brought back some incentives to spur sales, but to little avail.

“As lower incentive levels, high gas prices and inventory shortages plague the month-to-date sales rate, light-vehicle sales in May have been unable to shake the slowdown from the stronger pace of the first four months of 2011,” explained Jeff Schuster, J.D. Power’s executive director of global forecasting.

“May’s overall performance will hinge on how strong Memorial Day weekend sales were, but heading into this past weekend, the selling pace was indicating a SAAR closer to 11.5 million units,” he added.

It’s not all bad news for the industry, though, says Paul Taylor, chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association.

With gas prices softening, summer sales for dealers should reflect a variety of vehicles, said Taylor, who is predicting 12.9 million units for full-year 2011.

“Moderating gas prices going forward is good news for new-car and -truck dealers,” Taylor emphasized. “And the vehicle inventory will recover as early as mid June.”

Granted, gas prices are roughly $1/gallon higher than it was a year ago, Taylor acknowledged.

However, should the gas-price dip persist, Taylor believes “consumers will have more money to spend in the immediate future.”