McLEAN, Va. -

Though sales slow down according to seasonal trends associated with the approach of autumn, it seems dealers can look forward to lower prices at auction.

Values are expected to continue to fall this week, as NADA Used Car Guide is predicting a decline of 0.5 percent, or $75.

In fact, the only segment expected to remain flat over the course of the current week will be large pickups, “which continue to show strength comparatively into the fall selling season,” NADA UCG said.

The compact car and utility segments are expected to lead the pack in terms of declines, sliding by 0.5 percent apiece.

Right behind them will be the midsize car and van segments, according to NADA UCG, falling by around 0.4 percent, or $50, apiece. 

Smaller losses will be seen in the luxury car and large SUV segments; NADA UCG  expects declines of 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.

The segments showing the greatest price retention behind large pickups are the midsize utility and luxury utility segments, each which are expected to see a “barely perceptible” 0.1-percent ($25) drop.

On top of seasonality, used supply that is improving, albeit slowly, may be another reason price spikes at auction have slowed down.

According to CNW’s September Retail Automotive Summary, days’ supply of used vehicles is flat compared to August, coming in at 45.93 days.

That said, CNW seemed cautiously optimistic about dealers’ ability to stock quality, used units.

“Some dealers are still strapped for inventory of the most popular vehicles (age and model), but are at least keeping their lots full so they can offer a wide enough variety to cast a big net,” CNW president Art Spinella said.

Interestingly, transaction prices do not seem to be following price trends in the lanes, if data in CNW’s September Retail Automotive Summary is any indicator.

In fact, this month, franchised dealers are getting 95.24 percent of what they are asking for when closing a deal — up 2.75 percent year-over-year.

The average franchised transaction prices this month sits at $11,193.

For independent dealers, this group is seeing a near-12-percent year-over-year increase in transaction prices and a 2.23-percent spike from August.

For independent dealers, the average for transaction prices is $9,903.

Four- and two-week AuctionNet wholesale average prices are created by collecting all AuctionNet records for vehicles  up to five years of age for a specified period of time.  Prices are then adjusted for changes in mileage and mix.

Current week prices are based on NADA's proprietary used-vehicle value model which includes assumptions for new-vehicle prices, used-vehicle supply, gasoline prices, and other economic factors.

NADA Segment Average AuctionNet® Wholesale Price 2-Week v. Current
4-Week Average 2-Week Average Current Week % Change $ Change
Compact Car $10,375 $10,300 $10,250 -0.5% ($50)
Compact Utility $14,125 $14,025 $13,950 -0.5% ($75)
Industry $15,100 $14,950 $14,875 -0.5% ($75)
Large Pickup $20,575 $20,475 $20,475 0.0% $0
Large SUV $24,775 $24,625 $24,575 -0.2% ($50)
Luxury Car $22,925 $22,775 $22,700 -0.3% ($75)
Luxury Utility $25,750 $25,450 $25,425 -0.1% ($25)
Mid-Size Car $12,050 $11,950 $11,900 -0.4% ($50)
Mid-Size Utility $17,250 $17,125 $17,100 -0.1% ($25)
Mid-Size Van $13,950 $13,975 $13,925 -0.4% ($50)