McLEAN, Va. -

Prices in the lanes are predicted to continue to fall this week as seasonality has come into play. According to NADA Used Car Guide, wholesale prices are expected to decrease on average by 0.9 percent, or $125. And all segments are expected to contribute to this decline, except for one.

Bucking the trend, midsize vans are expected to grow by 0.4 percent, or $50 this week, NADA UCG reported.

Other than this one expected rise, all other segments are predicted to decline slightly over the course of the current week between a “tight” range of 0.2 percent to 1.5 percent.

Seeing 1.5-percent drops, according to NADA UCG, will be the compact car, luxury car, and midsize utility segments.

Luxury utilities and mid-size cars are also expected to decline by a little more than 1 percent apiece.  

Smaller losses are anticipated in the compact utility segment; this week’s decline in prices is expected to hit 0.7 percent, or $100, NADA UCG said.

These predictions for the second week in October are coming in just as NADA UCG also revealed in its October “Guidelines” report that used-vehicle prices fell in September by the largest amount in nearly a year.

In what NADA UCG said was a typical drop for the month, used-vehicle prices fell by 2.6 percent in September

But bucking the trend last month and this week, large SUVs and large pickups continue to see strong price retention in the lanes.

“Large SUVs and large pickups are both still outperforming nearly every other segment,” said David Paris, automotive analyst for NADA UCG.

SUVs are expected to see prices fall by about 0.5 percent, or $120 this week, while large pickups will see an every smaller dip of 0.2 percent, or $50.

Reports of retention strength in these segments were similar this past month, as well.

Following what has become a trend this year, truck retention rates remained above average in September.

In fact, full-size pickup trucks led all segments for price retention, with rates remaining unchanged from August, Black Book shared.

This segment also saw the strongest year-over-year retention, as well.

Full-size pickups finished the month with an average wholesale value of $23,320, marking only a 3.7-percent decline from the same time a year ago, according to Black Book data.

ADESA found that the average wholesale price for full-size pickups in September came in at $11,883, down 0.9 percent from August, but up 6.1 percent from September 2012.

Tom Kontos, the executive vice president and chief economist at ADESA Analytical Services, said, “Full-size pickups are showing price strength on a year-over-year basis, as construction improves.”

Compact pickups also had a strong showing, with an average price of $7,047 in September, down 0.1 percent from August, Kontos reported.

And this trend certainly won’t come as news to dealers.

According to NADA UCG’s October “Guidelines” report, large pickup prices continues to strengthen more last month with prices growing by 0.2 percent from August. This puts year-to-date price growth for this segment at 8.7 percent.

Four- and two-week AuctionNet wholesale average prices are created by collecting all AuctionNet records for vehicles  up to five years of age for a specified period of time.  Prices are then adjusted for changes in mileage and mix.

Current week prices are based on NADA's proprietary used-vehicle value model which includes assumptions for new-vehicle prices, used-vehicle supply, gasoline prices and other economic factors.

NADA Segment Average AuctionNet® Wholesale Price 2-Week v. Current
4-Week Average 2-Week Average Current Week % Change $ Change
Compact Car $9,875 $9,725 $9,575 -1.5% ($150)
Compact Utility $13,750 $13,625 $13,525 -0.7% ($100)
Industry $14,650 $14,500 $14,375 -0.9% ($125)
Large Pickup $20,225 $20,100 $20,050 -0.2% ($50)
Large SUV $24,075 $23,900 $23,775 -0.5% ($125)
Luxury Car $22,200 $21,900 $21,575 -1.5% ($325)
Luxury Utility $25,100 $24,900 $24,600 -1.2% ($300)
Mid-Size Car $11,650 $11,500 $11,375 -1.1% ($125)
Mid-Size Utility $16,775 $16,625 $16,375 -1.5% ($250)
Mid-Size Van $13,500 $13,225 $13,275 0.4% $50