McLEAN, Va. -

If there is going to be any impact on the wholesale values of models included in General Motors’ recent ignition-switch recalls, it will likely occur either this week or next, NADA Used Car Guide’s Larry Dixon told Auto Remarketing in an interview Thursday afternoon.

If it doesn’t happen during this time frame, it likely won’t happen at all, barring some unforeseen developments like another expansion in the recall or additional deaths revealed.

Dixon was talking with Auto Remarketing about his recent post to the Used Car & Truck Blog, where he dissects the potential wholesale price movements stemming from the GM ignition recall actions that have impacted around 1.6 million units.

As the post outlines and Auto Remarketing has reported, GM first recalled 2005 through 2007 model-year Chevrolet Cobalts and the 2007 model-year Pontiac G5 cars in February to correct a condition with the ignition switch that may allow the key to unintentionally move or switch to the “accessory” or “off” position, turning off the engine and most of the electrical components on the vehicle.

Then, GM would broaden the scope of the action two weeks later, recalling these models for the same issue: model-year 2006 and 2007 Chevrolet HHR and Pontiac Solstice vehicles; model-year 2003 through 2007 Saturn Ion vehicles; and 2007 Saturn Sky vehicles. All told, there were more than 1.3 million vehicles in the U.S. impacted by these two February ignition-switch announcements.

(All of these models have been discontinued, Dixon said, and the Pontiac and Saturn brands were cut from GM's lineup years ago. Additionally, GM brought about three unrelated recalls on Monday after an internal safety review that followed the ignition-switch actions).

Dixon said in the blog said this recall doesn’t seem to have had any “discernable impact” on used values of the vehicles invovled in the ignition-switch recalls. When asked why, he explained that there has to be a “bright media spotlight” on a recall — i.e. large, national mainstream media exposure — for used-car values to be impacted. That kind of media exposure has only recently started to ramp up, hence why any impact (if it’s going to happen) will occur in the next week or so.

To give a bit of recent historical context, Dixon gave the example of the Toyota unintended acceleration recalls in 2009 and 2010 — which included nearly 11 million cars around the globe — where it took three weeks after the largest of the actions for significant used pricing impacts to surface.

Granted, that recall was much larger, but had similar media exposure as GM’s, Dixon notes.

In the blog, Dixon also breaks down the current movement in wholesale values of models affected by the ignition switch recall.

Interesting enough, the 2005–2007 Cobalts (which have the most units included) saw their AuctionNet prices climb by 4 percent to 14 percent through the week of March 10 (on a two-week moving average basis).

Dixon says this movement has been on par directionally with what’s been happening with all 2007 model-year compact cars: a seasonally induced 7-percent hike. (He stressed that low prices of older cars tends to result in “more pronounced changes in percent terms.”)

“Price movement for other recalled models — Chevy HHR, Pontiac G5, Saturn ION, etc. — has been more-or-less directionally similar to what’s been recorded on the Cobalt (meaning, there’s been no evident drop-off; prices have either been flat or up),” Dixon said in the post.

“Going forward, it wouldn’t be surprising to see prices of affected models shift downward in reaction to the recall, especially if the intense media spotlight on the subject persists for an extended period of time,” he added.

Dixon's full blog post can be read here.