AutoNation chief executive officer Mike Jackson expects new-vehicle sales to rebound significantly during the fourth quarter but not by the path Kelley Blue Book projected.

Jackson refuted the notion automakers will resort to an “incentive war” with plenty of cash on the hood and low APR to move new metal.

During a meeting of AutoNation dealers and employees from Colorado in downtown Denver last week, Jackson told Reuters, “The whole business is much more disciplined, rational, much more focused on the long-term.”

To support his claim, Jackson pointed to the discipline on incentives by the Detroit automakers during the inventory woes of Toyota and Honda.

“Incentives are going to be better than they have been for the last six months,” Jackson said in the report, adding that they would not approach a level that would trigger a price war.

As Japanese inventories in the U.S. get back to full steam, some experts are predicting that an incentive war could heat up between these automakers and domestics. Japanese OEMs and dealers have their sights set on making up lost sales, while their domestic counterparts are looking to continue their sales momentum, meaning the market could be ripe for consumers to benefit.

In fact, KBB’s manager of vehicle valuation Alec Gutierrez predicted an incentive war in the fourth quarter.

“Consumers in the market for a new vehicle will likely find plenty of attractive deals in the latter part of the fourth quarter,” Gutierrez shared in KBB’s September Blue Book Market Report.

While the earthquake in Japan halted sales recovery earlier this year, KBB contends the anticipated push by the Japanese to recapture market share will likely help sales later this year.

“Since May, Japanese brands have given up considerable market share to both domestic and Korean manufacturers,” Gutierrez explained. “Prior to the earthquake, Japanese brands were consistently capturing close to 40 percent of all United States sales, but since April they have seen their monthly share of sales dwindle to nearly 30 percent.

“As Japanese production facilities return to full capacity in the near future, expect to see strong incentive support from these manufacturers as they aggressively try to recapture lost market share,” he projected.

No matter KBB’s stance, Jackson remains confident the seasonally adjusted annual rate for new-vehicle sales will reach 13 million by the end of the year.

“The auto recovery is going to resume probably in October,” Jackson projected to Reuters.

“We’re on a journey back to 16 million, 17 million. I can’t tell you exactly when we’re going to get there, but we are going to get there,” he continued.

During the presentation, Reuters reported AutoNation believes new-vehicle sales will hit 14.2 million units next year and 15.9 million in 2013, estimates in line with other industry analysts.

For example, when discussing its September sales forecast, J.D. Power said it will maintain its 2012 sales forecast at 14.2 million units.

Jackson insisted to Reuters he is “convinced” new-vehicle sales will return to more than 16 million per year in part because consumer vehicle loans have become available after the 2008-2009 recession quicker than home loans.

“We have reasonably good financing available for our customers, not what we had in 2005, 2006, 2007, but we may never have that again,” Jackson acknowledged to the wire service, adding that there is pent-up demand to drive sales.

More franchised dealer reaction Auto Remarketing collected about the KBB incentive projection is here.