McLEAN, Va. -

The Iranian nuclear program crisis is leading to surging fuel prices, but it’s going to take a lot more than $4-per-gallon gas for the used-vehicle market to see much of an impact, according to the NADA Used Car Guide.

The run-up in fuel costs will likely tap out at this $4 average in May, according to executive automotive analyst Jonathan Banks, and this would not be enough to cause anything more than historically modest used-pricing fluctuations.

“Considering consumers have become accustomed to gasoline prices that averaged more than $3.50 last year, this time around we don’t expect to see dramatic shifts in the shopping behavior of consumers for more fuel-efficient vehicles when prices approach the $4 mark,” he said.

“Looking at opposite ends of the fuel-economy spectrum, prices for used compact cars, like the Ford Focus or Honda Civic, at $4 per gallon will increase by an average of $179,” Banks said. “Used prices for large SUVs, such as the Chevy Tahoe, will decline by $387, while price adjustments for other vehicle segments will land somewhere in between.”

It would take gas prices heading deeper into unchartered waters, so to speak, before drastic swings would occur, Banks explained.

Say fuel costs go to $4.50 per gallon, the hike in compact car prices would likely be $638, which would be 3.5 times the hike caused by $4/gallon gas.

For large SUVs, $4.50/gallon gas would lead to a $2,148 drop in price, which is 5.5 times as strong as the $387 dip projected for $4/gallon fuel.

Sharing some more details on the latest fuel-cost upswing, regular grade gas has shown a $0.49 uptick in the first part of 2012, officials noted, citing the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This increase marks a $0.40 rise over what is the usual increase for this time of year.

Banks suggests this hike is influenced more by people anticipating an Iranian oil supply disruption (perhaps from military action) versus any actual loss in the oil supply.

That said, while it doesn’t appear right now that gas prices will reach the July 2008 high of $4.11/gallon, fuel, the aforementioned possible military action against Iran changes everything.

“If military action is taken against Iran, then all bets on how high gasoline prices will go are off,” he said.

NADA Used Car Guide also included data on the “Impact of the Rising Cost of Gas on Used Vehicle Prices,” as seen below:

Convention Attendance Surges

In other NADA-related news, the dealer association’s recent annual conference pulled in roughly 22,000 attendees, which marks a 22-percent improvement over the 2011 figures.

NADA and the American Truck Dealers held their conventions at the same time in the same city for the first time ever this year.

The convention showed a 29-percent uptick in exhibit sales (in terms of square feet). There was a 42-percent rise in the number of companies exhibiting for NADA (507) with ATD exhibitors jumping 16 percent to 64 companies.

Also, more than a quarter of the exhibitors were there for the first time. There were 50 additional exhibitors on the waiting list.

Visitors can still check out the “virtual” NADA and ATD expos for the next six months at www.nadaconventionandexpo.org.

“It’s a virtual one-stop shop that offers dealers and their managers the opportunity to locate exhibitors and find the products and services they need to improve their business operations,” stated Steve Pitt, NADA vice president of conventions and expositions.

Next year’s convention is slated for Feb. 8–11 in Orlando, Fla. More information can be found at the convention website, listed above.

“We encourage exhibitors and attendees alike to become a part of the growing NADA community by following the convention on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn,” Pitt added.