There could be a higher-than-usual lift in off-rental volumes flowing through auction lanes in coming weeks, NADA Used Car Guide said in its latest Guidelines report, but this spike is likely to be offset by an increase in the number of buyers at auction, as well.

The driver for both of these trends? Weather, of course.

In the report, NADA’s Jonathan Banks was explaining a 13-percent year-over-over decline in the number of AuctionNet transactions of 1-year-old units in January.  

“Given the foul weather that gripped much of the country, it’s highly likely that fewer rental units were able to reach auction lots in January,” Banks said.

“Considering this, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if the market were to experience an above-average spike in rental volume over the next few weeks as remarketers push to make up for lost time,” he continued. “That being said, the increase in rental volume should be countered by a rise in buyer traffic, as weather also prevented a number of dealers from making their way to the lanes.”

Manheim’s Tom Webb addressed rental-risk vehicle volumes (and prices on these cars, for that matter) in his recap of the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.  

“Prices for end-of-service rental risk units fell in January relative to December when measured as a straight average, but prices were up after adjustments for changes in mix and mileage,” Webb said.

“Off-rental volumes were up from December’s low level, but down from a year ago,” he added, pointing out the shipment delays that led to a decline for more than 15 percent of new-vehicle delivers into the rental fleet. “As those deliveries get back on schedule in February, so too should off-rental volumes.”

The average mileage on these rental-risk cars sold in the lanes hit what was nearly a three-year high, Webb said.

Climbing 10 percent year-over-year, their odometers were clocking in at more than 40,000 miles on average, he said.

The last time it was this high was February 2011.

Overall Volume Trends

All told, sales were up at the auctions last month when compared to December: there were 6-percent more AuctionNet transactions in January than there were in the prior four-week period (excluding the holidays), according to the Guidelines report.

Activity for some of the later-model cars was especially strong, with AuctionNet transactions up 16.9 percent for 2011 model-year vehicles and up 15.6 percent for 2012 model-year units.  The upswing for model-year 2013 units was a less significant 7 percent.

Volumes for 2014 cars were up 62.5 percent, but this is against a low base, NADA said. On average, cars in the 2007, 2008 and 2009 classes showed a 1.3-percent decrease in AuctionNet sales.

As for the 2010 model-year units, there were 7.6 percent less sales in the auction lanes, which points to “dissipating off-lease volume,” Banks said.