McLEAN, Va. -

The first day of spring is less than a week away, and auction prices are right in line with usual seasonal trends — that is to say, they are on the way up.

The good news? NADA Used Car Guide is predicting auction prices to peak this month, and then continue to slide downward through the remainder of the year.

According to its analysis, prices are expected to grow by 0.6 percent or $100 this week versus the two-week average. And as winter weather fades into more moderate spring days, some of the smaller vehicles are in high demand as consumers shift their interest away from four-wheel drive SUVs.

Prices reflect this trend, as well, as the biggest increases this week are expected in the compact car, compact utility and midsize car segments, which are all expected to see prices grow by a range of 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent for the week.

It doesn’t seem as if consumers have lost interest in large pickups, though, as they are still seeing very strong price retention rates.

Rounding out the top performers for price retention are large pickups, luxury cars and mid-size utilities, which are each expected to see gains within a tight range of 0.6 percent to 0.8 percent, David Paris, automotive analyst for NADA UCG, told Auto Remarketing.

As for expected declines this week, they are few and few between.

NADA UCG expects midsize vans to experience a 0.7-percent (or $125) drop in wholesale prices, followed by the luxury utility and large SUV segments with smaller losses of 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.

But relief might be in site. Tax season, of course, is causing auction prices to spike, but it seems the increases might be short lived.

According to the latest Guidelines report from NADA UCG, used vehicle values are set to peak this month.

“Used prices grew by 0.7 percent over the first half of the month (February), but more favorable weather over the second half of the month allowed prices to grow by 2.2 percent by month’s end, which is in line with NADA’s forecast of 2.1 percent,” said Jonathan Banks, executive automotive analyst at NADA UCG.

NADA is predicting the seasonal uptick in price for used vehicles to continue through this month before dissipating in the second quarter of the year.

Prices are expected to rise by 1 percent this month, according to NADA UCG, and then fall by an average range of 2.5 percent to 3 percent per month from April through June.

NADA UCG expects prices to be 0.5 percent to 1 percent lower than 2013 levels by the end of this year.

Four- and two-week AuctionNet wholesale average prices are created by collecting all AuctionNet records for vehicles  up to five years of age for a specified period of time.  Prices are then adjusted for changes in mileage and mix.

Current week prices are based on NADA's proprietary used-vehicle value model which includes assumptions for new-vehicle prices, used vehicle supply, gasoline prices, and other economic factors.

NADA Segment Average AuctionNet® Wholesale Price 2-Week v. Current
4-Week Average 2-Week Average Current Week % Change $ Change
Industry $16,675 $16,925 $17,025 0.6% $100
Large Pickup $23,100 $23,250 $23,425 0.8% $175
Large SUV $31,075 $31,550 $31,500 -0.2% ($50)
Luxury Car $23,625 $23,775 $23,975 0.8% $200
Luxury Utility $27,000 $27,150 $27,050 -0.4% ($100)
Mid-Size Car $13,225 $13,475 $13,650 1.3% $175
Mid-Size Utility $20,075 $20,325 $20,450 0.6% $125
Mid-Size Van $16,900 $17,175 $17,050 -0.7% ($125)