CARMEL, Ind. -

Retail demand weakened in October while wholesale prices continued to soften.

In his latest Kontos Kommentary report, KAR Auction Services chief economist Tom Kontos asserted that weak retail demand may have been a reflection of uncertainty before the election.

For the first time this year, new vehicle sales on a year-to-date basis fell below last year’s levels.

“That indicates that 2016 may not match the 2015 record in total new vehicle sales of 17.5 million,” Kontos said. “Nevertheless, the declines should be moderate — and it’s from an all-time high.

"Now that election uncertainty is resolved, it will be interesting to see whetehr there is a rebound in retail sales."

According to ADESA Analytical Services’ monthly analysis of Whole Used Vehicle Prices by Vehicle Model Class, wholesale used prices last month averaged $10,499, which was down 2.2 percent compared to September but up 3.0 percent year-over-year.

Average prices for cars were down 1.2 percent year-over-year, while truck prices were up 5.1 percent year-over-year. But even trucks are starting to feel the impact of the softening price environment, Kontos said, with several segments showing monthly declines of greater than 4 percent.

Average wholesale prices for used vehicles remarketed by manufacturers were down 0.9 percent month-over-month but up 8.6 percent year-over-year.  Prices for fleet/lease consignors were down 2.6 percent sequentially but up 1.0 percent annually. Dealer consignors registered a 3.0 percent average price decrease versus September but a 1.3 percent increase relative to last October.

According to NADA data, both franchised and independent dealers saw month-over-month decreases in retail used vehicle sales in the 14 percent to 15 percent range. For the year, however, retail used vehicle sales remain up 4.2 percent. 

October CPO sales were down 0.7 percent month-over-month and down 3.2 percent year-over-year, according to figures from Autodata — but CPO sales are up 3.0 percent for the year.

Kontos provided a video commentary as well that can be seen at the top of this page or by going here.

ADESA Wholesale Used-Vehicle Price Trends
   Average  Price  ($/Unit)  Latest  Month Versus
   Sept. 2016  August 2016  Sept. 2015  Prior Month  Prior Year
           
 Total All Vehicles  $10,499  $10,731  $10,192  -2.2%  3.0%
           
 Total Cars  $8,493  $8,663  $8,596  -2.0%  -1.2%
 Compact Car  $6,395  $6,495  $6,652  -1.5%  -3.9%
 Midsize Car  $7,364  $7,518  $7,527  -2.0%  -2.2%
 Full-size Car  $7,499  $7,608  $7,865  -1.4%  -4.7%
 Luxury Car  $13,410  $13,769  $13,196  -2.6%  1.6%
 Sporty Car  $13,057  $13,353  $13,021  -2.2%  0.3%
           
 Total Trucks  $12,423  $12,735  $11,821  -2.5%  5.1%
 Minivan  $8,279  $8,383  $7,553  -1.2%  9.6%
 Full-size Van  $12,683  $13,587  $12,691  -6.7  -0.1
 Compact SUV/CUV  $10,465  $10,525  $10,271  -0.6%  1.9%
 Midsize SUV/CUV  $11,115  $11,655  $10,252  -4.6%  8.4%
 Full-size SUV/CUV  $13,704  $13,255  $12,494  3.4%  9.7%
 Luxury SUV/CUV  $18,210  $18,591  $18,005  -2.1%  1.1%
 Compact Pickup  $8,405  $8,608  $7,940  -2.4%  5.9%
 Full-size Pickup  $15,187  $15,878  $14,775  -4.4%  2.8%

Source: ADESA Analytical Services.