McLEAN, Va. -

For vehicles up to 8 years in age, there was a 1-percent year-over-year decline in the number of AuctionNet wholesale transactions last year, according to NADA Used Car Guide.

Here’s the thing, though: this overall change in volume doesn’t necessarily paint an all-encompassing picture of the entire market. The year-over-year movements in AuctionNet auction volume varied wildly across different vehicle age groups and segments, the Guidelines report indicates.

In fact, this 1-percent decrease “masks considerable differences in trends across vehicle age groups,” NADA Used Car Guide’s Jonathan Banks said in the report.

He explained that volume for 1- to 4-year-old vehicles jumped 9.2 percent thanks to stronger off-lease supply and a modest uptick rental fleet volume. Meanwhile, volume for vehicles ages 5 to 8 fell 11.2 percent due to the 2007–2009 new-car sales plunge that occurred because of the recession.

And consider this more detailed age-group breakdown of AuctionNet auction volume trends that the report provided:

•    1- to 2-year-old vehicles: volume up 4 percent in 2013
•    3- to 4-year-old vehicles: volume up 14 percent in 2013
•    5- to 6-year-old vehicles: volume down 23 Percent in 2013
•    7- to 8-year-old vehicles: volume up 1 percent in 2013

Similar (if not more pronounced) variety was spotted when looking at volume changes among individual segments.

“At the extremes, subcompact car, midsize car, compact utility, near luxury and premium luxury car, and luxury compact utility segments all experienced volume growth across the majority of age groups; not coincidentally, prices for these segments softened in 2013,” Banks said.

“At the opposite end of the spectrum, midsize pickups and vans, large cars and large SUVs each saw auction volume slide virtually across the board, thereby helping to lift prices for most of these segments last year.”

Volume Forecast for 2014

In what’s likely to be good news for dealers who thrive in the certified pre-owned business, NADA is projecting that the crop of vehicles up to 5 years old will remain on the upswing for most segments this year.  

Overall, there is expected to be an 8-percent increase in this age group NADA considers to be late-model; but take that with a grain of that, Banks said, as “supply will remain some 12 percent below 2009 levels, even with the increase.”

He went on to show how the truck segments — most notably the midsize pickups, large SUVs, midsize vans, and large pickups —  illustrate this supply “disparity” particularly well.

“For example, it’s estimated that late-model large pickup supply will grow by just over 9 percent in 2014; but even so, supply will remain nearly 30 percent lower than 2009 levels,” Banks said.

As for segments like midsize cars, luxury and non-luxury compact utilities, and subcompact cars, it’s a different story. Banks points out that these segments are projected to see their supply exceed 2009 levels. The increase for luxury/non-luxury compact utilities and subcompact cars is likely to be especially noticeable.