Edmunds.com is forecasting 3.3 million used-car sales for the month, down from 3.4 million in July. The resulting SAAR would be 39.0 million, versus 38.9 million last month.
These projections follow what Edmunds said what the best second quarter for used-car sales since 2007.
There were a combined 9.80 million used cars sold in April, May and June, up from 9.64 million in Q2 of 2015, according to the company’s Q2 2016 Used Vehicle Market Report.
Franchised dealers accounted for just over 3 million of this year’s Q2 used-car sales. This was a 4-percent year-over-year gain and the strongest Q2 ever for franchised used sales, Edmunds said in the report.
New-car sales forecast
Meanwhile, new-car retail sales are expected to decline year-over-year for fourth time in six months, according to a forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.
Their joint report calls for 1.27 million retail new-car sales in August, down 6.5 percent year-over-year, with total new sales down 5.2 percent at 1.49 million for the month.
Year-to-date, retail new-car sales are likely to finish August 1.2 percent behind where they were in the first eight months of 2015. That said, total new-car sales through August are projected to beat year-ago figures by 0.5 percent.
John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power, said in a news release: “Following 66 consecutive months of retail sales growth that began in September 2010, we’ve seen four declines in the past six months, and this much of a pullback in August will be a disappointment for the industry.
“Softening retail sales amid low interest rates, relatively cheap gas and automakers pushing more aggressive incentives may be an indicator that further growth in this cycle will be difficult,” he said. “There is opportunity for some catch-up in the all-important Labor Day selling period, but as momentum slows, the industry will need to be cautious to balance volume and margin, as incentives are close to record levels.”
Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive, said it has become evident that last year was the peak for new-car sales.
“However, it is important to focus on the sustainable high level of demand,” Schuster said. “Peak does not mean doom and gloom, and while the industry faces risk, it is not destined for a pullback.”
Edmunds, meanwhile, is calling for 1.53 million total new-car sales this month, down 2.5 percent year-over-year. August's tally would represented an estimated SAAR of 17.2 million.
However, the company is calling for year-to-date totals to reach 11.69 million, which would outpace year-ago figures by 0.8 percent.
And 2015 was a record year .
“The summer isn’t delivering explosive sales like we saw last year, but the industry is still on pace to set an annual sales record,” Edmunds executive director of industry analysis Jessica Caldwell said in a news release.
“Automakers have done a good job this year of staying disciplined and managing their inventories” she said. “With volumes at record highs, they can focus even more attention on battles for market share.”