CLEVELAND -

With rising off-lease vehicle volume being described as a “tailwind,” the April dealer survey conducted by KeyBanc Capital Markets indicated that 71 percent of respondents posted an increase in used-vehicle sales during the month. But not only did the remaining 29 percent of dealers surveyed sustain a drop in used turns, it might have been to a degree that might have triggered a department staff meeting.

All 29 percent of the stores that experienced softening monthly sales had a decrease of at least 10 percent, according to the survey results shared with Auto Remarketing on Monday.

The largest segment of dealers who said they had a used-sales increase in April generated a lift below 5 percent. That group consisted of 43 percent of that cluster.

The remaining 28 percent of participants who enjoyed used-sales upticks were evenly split between stores that had increases between 5 percent and 10 percent or jumps of more than 10 percent.

Mentioning a source of used inventory — especially certified pre-owned units — KeyBanc analysts projected that annual lease expirations are expected to increase to about 3.9 million vehicles in 2018, up from 2.5 million off-lease units the industry experienced in 2015.

“That is a 56-percent increase over the next three years,” KeyBanc said. “Increasing lease expirations should remain a tailwind to new and used vehicle sales.”

Analysts added “80 percent of returning lessees will lease another new vehicle. About 8 million units of estimated pent-up new vehicle demand should remain a tailwind to new vehicle sales for a few years to come.”

And speaking of new-vehicle sales, KeyBanc mentioned that the April and May new-model seasonally adjusted annual sales rate rebounded to 17.3 million in April and 17.5 million in May as the firm projected.

KeyBanc closed by cautioning how trends it is seeing could pit departments at franchised dealerships against each other when analysts touched on the volume of leases rolling over the curb.

“This positive driver of new vehicle sales will be partially offset by the lower used-vehicle prices as a result of an increase of late-model used vehicles in the marketplace,” KeyBanc said. “Lower trade-in values will result in slightly higher monthly payments of about $25/month on average for a lease and about $15 on average on a financed purchased, based on our estimates.

“Additionally, lower used vehicle prices will cause some potential new vehicle buyers to move into the late model used-vehicle market,” the firm went on to say.