CARY, N.C. -

While full-year used-car prices should increase by more than 3 percent this year, you can expect some slowdown over the next few years, according to the latest quarterly RVI Risk Outlook from RVI Analytics.

For full-year 2018, the RVI Used Vehicle Price Index is likely to grow 3.1 percent over 2017. However, the index is likely to see a 1.6-percent year-over-year decline in each of the next two years, before rebounding 3.3 percent in 2021, the RVI data shows.

Compared to where used-car prices currently stand, RVI projecting them to be down 4.5 percent by 2021.

“We expect lease penetration to decline from record highs over the next three years,” RVI analysts said in the report’s synopsis. “Thus, this supply of off-leased vehicles (record highs) will enter the market, and drive further declines in used-vehicle prices.”

Speaking of leases and off-lease supply, RVI gave some more concrete numbers within the report.

It pegged lease penetration at 22.3 percent of new-car sales in the second quarter, a figure the firm is anticipating will soften in the next two years.

But off-lease volume, which was up 9.8 percent year-over-year in September, should remain on the upswing for the next two years, RVI said.