McLEAN, Va. -

Though NADA Used Car Guide is predicting used-vehicle depreciation rates will see only a modest uptick in the next few years, a few segments it tracks are set up to buck the trend.

In fact, a few of these segments, mostly truck-related, are expected to experience changes “well above the market as a whole,” explained Jonathan Banks, senior analyst with NADA Used Car Guide.

Going against what is expected to be a  “a period of used-price stability that hasn’t been seen in over a decade,” NADA Used Car Guide is estimating that large pickup depreciation will rise to an average of 15.6 percent per year, or nearly seven points more than the 8.9 percent average witnessed from 2009 through 2011.

Giving this number some context, NADA UCG said in its report — titled “Volatility in Used Vehicle Depreciation: Historical Trends & Future Outlook” — that it anticipates the depreciation on a $12,000 used vehicle in 2012 will be 15.7 percent, or $1,884, on average. This would be fairly static (up 0.6 percent or $72) from 2011.

In dollars, NADA UCG is predicting the price of a used, $20,000 large pickup will fall by $3,200 over the course of 2014 — $720 more than 2011’s loss of $2,480.

This marks the second-largest depreciation increase expected over this period of time, falling between estimated depreciation growth for midsize pickups and large SUVs.

Though speaking in percentages, the depreciation rate for large pickup trucks doesn’t seem that far off from the national average, looking at this segment’s history the past few years may be cause for concern.

This segment has been on what Banks calls a “near-unmatched depreciation roller coaster ride over the past few years.”

After 2008, when demand for large pickups “dried up” upon gasoline prices soaring above $4 per gallon, 2009 and 2010 saw consumer interest rebound strongly.

But as consumers began to search for used trucks once again, NADA UCG officials noted the supply of late-model units began to fall.

“For example, by 2010 NADA estimates that supply had fallen by 18 percent relative to 2008. This compares to a decline of 11 percent for the market as a whole,” Banks shared.

“This combination of low gasoline prices and contracting supply translated into a massive swing in depreciation from 2008 to the period of 2009-10, as depreciation plummeted from 26.7 percent to an average of just 7.1 percent. This means a used, $20,000 large pickup went from losing $5,340 of its value in 2008, to an average of only $1,420 per year over the next two years,” Banks explained further.

But even though 2011 gas prices of nearly $4 per gallon increased large pickup depreciation, the 12.4-percent loss rate was still better than the 15.1 percent rate for the overall vehicle market, he noted.

“Looking ahead, however, persistently high gasoline prices, especially in 2014 due to the anticipated acceleration of global economic expansion, will be primarily responsible for the passing of this unusually strong era of depreciation,” Banks concluded.

And though the large-pickup segment is well off from 2008’s rate of 26.7 percent depreciation, it has risen consistently every year from 2009, and it looks like the Roller Coaster may not have come to a stop quite yet.