Even though production for several automakers remains below full steam due to the Japanese quake effect, new-vehicle sales essentially picked up right where they left off at the end of April and are continuing to gain ground, Edmunds.com pointed out Friday.
The company also spotted a $350 increase in the average new-car price during the last two months.

What’s more, demand appears to be climbing, as well, with overall days-to-turn dropping 8 days since Japan was struck by disaster.

“One big question as we enter the summer selling season is how the collision between car buyers looking for seasonal deals and manufacturers/dealers raising prices will all play out. It does suggest that there is a downside risk to the sales numbers in the months ahead,” said Jeremy Anwyl, chief executive officer at Edmunds.com, in his recent commentary on Edmunds’ AutoObserver.com.

“I also see buyers reacting to headlines and shifting to non-Japanese brands, helped by real price increases. My sense is that this is an over-compensation, and we will see dealers forced to bring prices down, while manufacturers will have to rethink their flight from incentives,” he continued, noting that Toyota had boosted incentives on Thursday.

“This should become clearer over the next few months, but I would expect the market to achieve a better balance of pricing to demand,” Anwyl added.

Specifically, Edmunds’ preliminary analysis indicates that the seasonally adjusted annualized rate for new-vehicle sales during this month’s first week was 12.8 million units.

This total marks “little deterioration” compared to where the SAAR was during April’s final week, the site explained.

Delving into its analysis in more detail, Edmunds pointed out that the first week of May has seen some major movers as far as market share.

For instance, Toyota’s retail market share fell 28 percent from where it was during the first of the prior month, while Honda’s dropped 20 percent.

Conversely, General Motors’ saw its retail market share jump 18 percent against the month-ago week, while Volkswagen improved 8 percent from the first week of April.

Edmunds also pointed out that BMW made a 28-percent improvement and Mercedes-Benz climbed 10 percent, but stressed that these automakers were rather soft in early April.

Pricing Grows Higher

Moving on to discuss new-vehicle pricing, Edmunds pointed out that May’s first week showed a $150 week-over-week gain. Japanese automakers showed the greatest week-over-week increase, up $250.
The industry’s new-vehicle prices in the first week of May had gone up $350 in the weeks following the Japanese earthquake.

Breaking down the largest week-over-week price changes by segment, midsize car prices climbed around $220 (0.9 percent) compared to the last week in April, compact cars increased around $160 (up 0.8 percent) and full-size cars jumped approximately $230 (0.7 percent), according to Edmunds.

Edmunds also listed the following popular models as having significant week-over-week price gains, with approximate increases:

—Accord, $480
—CRV, $300
—Pilot, $330
—Camry, $120
—Corolla, $220
—Prius, $50
—Fusion, $150
—Malibu, $50
—Cruze, $120
—Mazda3, $200

Days-to-Turn

Looking at the supply data in more detail, Edmunds noted that days-to-turn in the first week of May was 50, declining from 58 days in the aftermath of the earthquake.

Breaking it down, European days-to-turn have dropped to 41 from 46. Korean automakers were at 44 days-to-turn the first week of May, compared to 49 before the quake.

Domestics’ days-to-turn came in at 49 for the first week of the month, down from 59 previously.

Interestingly enough, Japanese automakers have trimmed the least amount of days-to-turn since the earthquake (55 compared to 59 before).

Forecast

Moving along to offer his take on what may play out for the rest of 2011, Anwyl stated: “Looking to the end of the year, I see a real possibility for sales to jump. As inventories again start to build, car buyers who have deferred their purchases because of pricing and availability concerns will be coaxed back to the market.

“The big question for the Japanese manufacturers will be how to leverage this mini sales boom to get back in the game,” he concluded.