Used-car leasing is still a small slice of the market, according to Experian Automotive data, which indicates that used cars comprised 3.98 percent of the lease market in the first quarter.

However, that’s up from a 3.90-percent share of the market in Q1 2015, which is more than a 2-percent rise, Experian said.

While that’s not astronomical growth, used-car leasing is starting to gain some ground in the industry (case in point: the Ally Pre-owned SmartLease program launched in April). 

And leasing on certified pre-owned vehicles may be ripe for growth, as well.

“I would have to think that that’s definitely an avenue that many of these guys are looking into,” David Lim, a vice president and equity analyst with Wells Fargo Securities, said during an AIADA webinar this week.

From his discussions on an OEM level, Lim said he believes CPO leasing growth “is definitely a viable possibility.”

Lim said one challenge would the finding a way to incorporate the residual factor into the calculation, “but I think the OEMS, with all these vehicles coming back, they’re really leaving no stone unturned.”

While acknowledging that he is not privy to what, exactly, the conversations entail, Lim said that he has heard some OEMs are being approached by online retailers that could serve “as an outlet for used vehicles” during this supply surge.

Point is, automakers need a way to manage that excess supply, and CPO leasing could certainly be a possibility.

 “There is simply a wave that’s coming and they’re definitely looking at, ‘how do we manage this going forward and try to maintain residual values?’,” Lim said, “because the thought is, once you put it to auction, the car is going to yield whatever it’s going to yield.”

He added that some are “trying to avoid this to a certain degree. ”

ADESA chief economist Tom Kontos — who joined Lim and Dealertrack’s Mark Furcolo as panelists — shared some overall thoughts on the rise of CPO.

“Definitely certified pre-owned sales have been another really positive factor in the market out there, specifically with off-lease volumes because it’s a very certifiable unit,” Kontos said. “So with the growing awareness — both among dealers to pitch CPO sales and by consumers to be attracted to those types of sales and be aware that’s an option for them — I think that’s been a real positive on the demand side for used-car sales.”

Speaking of used-car sales, Edmunds.com is predicting 3.1 million used-car sales for June, resulting in a SAAR of 38.0 million.  In May, there were 3.2 million used sales with a SAAR of 38.0 million, Edmunds said.

TrueCar’s forecast indicates that there may be more than 3.24 million used-vehicle sales this month, which would beat June 2015 figures by 5.5 percent.