Though September used-vehicle sales for franchise and independent dealers are likely to climb modestly year-over-year, there will likely be a close to a 4-percent decline in overall used sales, according to CNW Research. Not to mention, projections for full-year 2010 aren’t as favorable as some initial expectations.

Specifically, there will likely be 3.15 million used units sold in September, off 3.7 percent from September 2009, according to CNW.

Breaking it down, CNW noted that franchise dealers are expected to move 1.08 million used units, which is an improvement of 3.6 percent from year-ago figures. Independents will likely improve 2.3 percent to 1.13 million used vehicles sold.

However, there has been dramatic erosion in private-party sales, as these are anticipated to come in at 940,000 for the month. This would be a drop of 16.4 percent.

“A year ago, during and in the months following the Cash for Clunkers program, many vehicles that didn’t qualify for C4C were traded in or sold,” explained Art Spinella, president of CNW.

“Pushed by a deep recession, a significant number of families were trying to rid themselves of excess vehicles and selling them for whatever they could get. That post-C4C is impacting this year’s numbers,” he noted.

The company explained that year-to-date sales are expected to climb 3.7 percent in September, but if the current pace continues, there likely won’t be more than 38 million used vehicles sold. CNW said the sales total might only be a bit better than that of 2008.

“That’s disappointing for many. Early in the year and during the first quarter, it appeared the used-car market would top 39 million units,” suggested Spinella.

“Fear about the economy, however, has worsened in the last few months rather than improved. In turn resulting in used-car buyers pulling back their intentions to buy,” he added.

The pent-up demand data on purchase delays that CNW provides reflects as much, he noted.

During August, shoppers planned to put off purchases by an average of 3.64 months. In July, the delay time was 3.16 months and in May, it was 2.76 months.

It was also noted that the percentage of delayers who said in August they plan on purchasing within the next year was at roughly 95 percent. Close to 97 percent said the same during the second quarter, so there has been a bit of erosion in that area.

Trends in Retail Pricing

Moving on to discuss used retail pricing, CNW pointed out that there has been some stability in this area. Asking prices for franchise dealers have jumped 2.62 percent year-over-year in September, while transaction prices have moved ahead 0.93 percent.

For independents, asking prices have climbed 5.11 percent, with transaction prices climbing 1.85 percent.

Future Used-Vehicle Sales Projections

Continuing on, CNW also offered a used-vehicle sales outlook for each year starting with 2011 and going up to 2020.

In calendar-years 2011, 2012 and 2013, used sales are expected to grow each year, hitting a high mark of 41.25 million in 2013, the data shows.

Then in 2014, the used sales total will likely taper off to 41 million vehicles before climbing to 41.75 million the following year and remaining steady there in 2016.

Calendar-year 2017 is expected to show used sales falling from 41.75 million units back down to 40.5 million vehicles before dipping further to 40.25 million units in 2018.

The uptick will start again in 2019, with sales projected at 41 million with an increase to 41.75 million units to follow in 2010.

For the most part, the proportion of sales between franchised, independent and private-party sales won’t change too much, but CNW is projecting that casual sales could see an uptick later on down the road.

“The data suggests little overall change in share, but after 2016, private party should see significant increases due to personal technology products that will circumvent the need to visit a dealership,” Spinella added.