You can probably expect around an 800,000-unit increase in lease maturity volume next year, and those cars are likely to feed nicely into dealer lots as certified pre-owned units, says Joe Derkos of J.D. Power.

But as far as how many CPO cars J.D. Power believes will be moving off of dealer lots next year … well, you’re going to have to wait until Used Car Week like the rest of us.

That’s when Derkos and his team will announce their forecast for 2016 certified sales.

Derkos, who is delivering the opening day keynote at Used Car Week on Nov. 16, will go into everything from an overall industry overview and the parallels between the new- and used-car markets to the top factors driving the pre-owned market, like extended-term financing, lease maturities and the impact of younger buyers and more subprime buyers.

During his Used Car Week sessions in the past, Derkos — who is director of consulting and analytics at J.D. Power —  has typically revealed the company’s projections for new-car sales in coming years, and of course, its CPO sales forecast.

He shared some of those plans Thursday afternoon during a Used Car Week sneak peek webinar hosted by Paul Potratz, chief operating officer of Potratz Advertising.

Among the tidbits he offered was the off-lease figure mentioned earlier, which is a looming figure the industry should take to heart.

“As I mentioned at the beginning, we expect another 800,000 or so to mature next year versus this year, which is by far the biggest year-over-year increase that we’ve seen in recent history,” Derkos said.

The fact that those cars often being low-mileage units in good condition coming back to the grounding dealer is an ideal mix for CPO, he said.

“There’s a number of factors that make those vehicles prime candidates for certification,” he said. “So as long as the dealer who’s receiving the vehicle at the end is in a position to certify the vehicle, inspect it and recondition it quickly, there’s a lot of opportunity to be had for those dealers to perform at faster turn rates, larger profits both in the F&I office and front-end gross, and a number of other benefits that serve the whole supply chain, both the dealer and the OEM — and that’s a loyal customer, (and) a likelihood that that customer is going to be a conquest source, and you can migrate that customer up into a new vehicle over the course of that vehicle ownership period.

“So, it’s a huge opportunity out there,” he added. “A lot of dealers are getting onboard; we see much better engagement across the clients that we work directly with and observing how their dealers are getting more and more engaged with their certification programs. But it would be good to see it grow a little bit faster.”

Catch the rest of Derkos' thoughts on the certified market during his address at the CPO Forum during Used Car Week. The annual conference series is being held Nov. 16-20 at The Phoenician in Scottsdale, Ariz.