Dealers — particularly franchised stores — are expected to show growth in their used-car departments this month, but the same can’t be said for private-party sales, which are expected to fall nearly 10 percent year-over-year, according to CNW Research.

The firm’s latest Retail Automotive Summary explains how changing consumer behavior and the dealer’s approach to trade-ins have led to this decline.

“In 2012, dealers were cautious about taking vehicles in on trade and simultaneously offering low-book for those trades,” explained CNW president Art Spinella. “Many used-car sellers turned to AutoTrader, craigslist and other private party outlets to sell their cars and trucks.

“This year, as dealers continue to build their used-car inventories, both franchised and independents are skimming the cream of the crop for their lots leaving private party sales mostly older, less desirable models,” he continued. “Add that franchised and independent dealers are finding financing for lower credit-score shoppers and the shift becomes even more logical.”

That said, don’t expect this decline in sales between consumers to last for long.

CNW is projecting private-party sales to improve next quarter.

As for February, the anticipated 9.6-percent drop for casual sales stands in stark contrast to the 6.6-percent lift projected for franchised dealers.

CNW is forecasting them to move 714,000 used units this month, up from 669,543 in February 2012. Independents will likely sell 694,000 used units for a 3.7-percent hike.

All told, the firm expects just a shade fewer than 2 million used sales this month, which would be up 0.3 percent from the year-ago period.

Other used-car guidances put that figure much higher.

TrueCar is forecasting a used-car market with 3.40 million sales this month, compared to 3.25 million a year ago.  The firm is projecting a new-to-used ratio of 1-to-3.

And as reported earlier, Edmunds.com anticipates there will be 3.35 million used sales this month, versus 3.12 million used sales in January. The resulting used-car SAAR would be 37.2 million, down from 38.7 million last month.