With Monday marking the last day of April, Kelley Blue Book thinks franchised dealers will have enjoyed a double-digit daily selling rate above the same month last year.

KBB estimated April new-vehicle sales to reach 1,148,000 units, or 14.0 million seasonally adjusted sales rate. If the projection holds true, analysts contend it will account for a less-than-1-percent decline in volume relative to April of last year when the industry posted sales of nearly 1,158,000.

However, KBB insisted April’s daily selling rate will improve by 11.6 percent with three fewer selling days this year compared to the same month last year, coming in at nearly 47,800 units, and just shy of the 50,100 posted in March. 

“Kelley Blue Book believes sales will continue to improve throughout 2012 on strong demand from consumers due to aging vehicles, compelling introductions and redesigns offered by manufacturers, and continued (albeit moderate) improvements in economic conditions in the United States,” explained Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book.

“Earlier (in April), Kelley Blue Book increased its annual forecast up to 14.2 million units based on the Q1 sales pace, which averaged 14.5 million SAAR,” Gutierrez continued. “Kelley Blue Book’s initial projections in late 2011 estimated sales for 2012 between 13.3 to 13.5 million units overall."

According to KBB analysts, all indications point to continued strength in consumer demand. They believe that if inventory can keep pace with demand, the industry will continue to post strong gains in the months ahead. 

KBB stressed the 54-day vehicle supply currently available in the United States should be adequate to meet current demand. However, the firm pointed out supply has declined steadily since Feb. 1 when there was a more than 65-day supply of vehicles available for sale. 

KBB cautioned that further inventory declines may be on the horizon.

Analysts noted that an explosion at a plant in Germany could shut down production of a vital plastic resin that is used in brake lines, fuel lines and other flexible hoses for several months.

“Although it remains unclear how drastically this will impact the current pace of the auto sales recovery, auto manufacturers are taking the implications seriously,” KBB acknowledged.

“More than 200 representatives from auto manufacturers and supply companies met in Detroit in early April to discuss solutions and alternatives,” the firm continued. “Kelley Blue Book will be keeping an eye on production in the coming weeks to better assess the likelihood of a sales recovery slowdown.”

April Sales Projection by OEM

Returning back to its April sales estimations, KBB indicated that General Motors should recover market share after dropping from 18.2 percent to 16.5 percent share from February to March. 

“GM will be aided by Cruze and Sonic sales, which have performed well in recent months due to high fuel prices and competitive lease offerings starting below $200 per month,” Gutierrez explained.

“Kelley Blue Book expects Nissan to lead year-over-year gains due to strong cash and lease support available on nearly all vehicles in its portfolio,” he continued. “Consumers can look to Nissan for competitive leases and up to $3,000 cash back depending on the model.”

KBB conceded that Nissan’s 46 percent year-over-year increase should be taken with “a grain of salt” since Nissan sales were especially soft during April of last year.

The firm expects Chrysler to post an impressive 13.6-percent gain year-over-year, beating GM and Ford, which are expected to decline in volume.

Analysts reiterated there are only 24 selling days in April versus 27 last year, so sales declines are expected. 

“Toyota and Hyundai will continue to perform well, but they will find it difficult to increase their share beyond current levels given their lean inventories; currently at 32- and 27-day supply, respectively,” KBB stated.

Midsize Cars Will Retain Sales Dominance

KBB wrapped up its sales projections by declaring midsize cars will continue to hold a significant share of all vehicles sold in April. 

“Strong sales in the midsize segment can be summed up in one of two ways:  Strong introductions and redesigns such as the Toyota Camry, Hyundai Sonata and Volkswagen Passat have helped increase sales of some mid-size sedans, while cash rebates and lease offers have helped to push volume of vehicles like the Chrysler 200 and Nissan Altima,” analysts explained.

“Both the 200 and Altima are available with more than $2,000 in cash rebates currently, which is significantly more than what currently is available on the Camry, Accord and many other high-profile entrants in the segment,” they continued.

“Subcompacts will continue to benefit from high fuel prices and solid new introductions or redesigns such as the Chevrolet Sonic and Ford Fiesta,” KBB went on to note. “Subcompacts have increased market share by nearly 2 points year-over-year, and we expect sales to remain strong as long as fuel prices remain elevated.”