While announcing that its January new-sales projection is coming in at 30 percent below the December high, Kelley Blue Book also revealed that the monthly total is likely to beat January 2011 by 10 percent.

In total, the company is forecasting January new-vehicle sales to reach 900,000, coming in at a 13.2 million seasonally adjusted annual sales rate.

And the company expects the annual trend in sales improvement to continue.

“Our analysts have produced a regression model that explores unemployment, housing, consumer confidence and seasonal patterns to assist with our sales forecast for the year,” explained Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book.

“Given current market conditions and our expectations for 2012, we believe sales will continue to improve at a conservative pace in 2012,” he added.

Explaining their predications, officials said sales will continue to improve in 2012 due to heightened demand stemming from the increasing age of vehicles on the road today; currently 10.8 years on average.

Improving unemployment conditions will also lend a hand. In December 2011, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5 percent, as the economy added 200,000 non-farm payroll jobs.

“The more comprehensive measure of unemployment provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U6, which includes part-time workers that would prefer to work full time and marginally attached workers, is still at 15.2 percent,” said Gutierrez. “While this is lower than the 15.6 percent of November, it is still quite high overall.”

Moreover, management surmised consumer confidence and housing are likely to remain relatively stable through 2012 and will not influence sales significantly.

If current projections hold true, 2012 will be another solid year for manufacturers, but significant downside risks that could slow down the momentum, management pointed out.

So what are the risks that management continues to eye?

“We remain especially concerned about the ongoing European debt crisis and the heightened tensions with Iran as potential events that could derail the current U.S. vehicle sales recovery,” said Gutierrez. “The European debt crisis has been of particular concern in recent weeks due to the debt rating downgrade of France, Portugal, Italy and other European economies, leading to concerns for their ability to generate interest in future bond offerings.”

A recent announcement by the World Bank, projecting a global slump in economic growth as in 2012, is only adding to financial health concerns for the overall Eurozone, according to management.

“The World Bank cut its 2012 growth forecast for the 17 countries that use the euro as their primary currency from 1.8 percent to -0.3 percent, all but proclaiming Eurozone nations to already be in a recession. The bank also cut its expectations for U.S. growth in 2012 from 2.9 percent overall, down to 2.2 percent. The bank’s Chief Economist Justin Yifu Lin warned that a European recession could trigger a global freezing of capital markets, similar to what occurred in 2008,” according to KBB.

“If that weren’t enough, tensions with Iran could spell additional trouble, especially if Iran follows through on threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps prompting military intervention by the U.S. Combined, this would certainly lead to oil prices in excess of the $140 per barrel peak that occurred in 2008, which would be disastrous for the economic recovery currently underway,” KBB reported.

Who Is Leading the Pack?

But when it comes to particular brands, the perennial leaders have a leg up, officials pointed out.

“We project GM, Ford and Toyota to lead new-vehicle sales in January, as each manufacturer relies on the success of recent redesigns to keep their sales momentum moving forward,” said Gutierrez. “General Motors will be led by strong performances from the Chevrolet Silverado, the hot-selling compact Cruze, and the Equinox crossover, while later in the year a new redesign for the Chevrolet Malibu also will help boost sales for GM.”

Ford will look to the redesigned Focus, all-new Fiesta and class-leading F-150, to drive sales in January. The 2013 Escape and highly anticipated Fusion redesign also will help keep Ford’s sales momentum strong, officials continued.

“In January, we are currently projecting GM and Ford to maintain 18.8 and 16.1 percent share, respectively,” added Gutierrez. “Although GM and Ford will lead sales overall, Toyota isn’t too far behind in third place and they will likely push to regain share throughout 2012.”

After losing market share from its unintended acceleration recalls in 2010 and the inventory shortages resulting from the earthquake in Japan in 2011, Toyota has plenty of room for improvement in 2012, at least according to KBB. The company predicted that Toyota will look to the redesigned Yaris, Camry and all-new Prius V to inflate sales in January.

“The sought after Scion FR-S and ultra-efficient Prius C also should help bring excitement back to Toyota’s lineup, something that has been lacking for several years,” said Gutierrez.

“Consumers seeking reliable resale values should also consider Toyota since they were recently named top brand at the 2012 Kelley Blue Book Best Resale Value Awards because of its industry leading five-year residual values. If that weren’t enough to highlight Toyota’s strength, visitors to Kbb.com are already giving us strong signals of Toyota’s expected rebound this year,” he continued.

According to Kelley Blue Book Market Intelligence, Toyota maintained 19.4 percent of all new-car traffic in December, more than any other brand overall. Kelley Blue Book projects Toyota will capture 13.5 percent market share in January and potentially more moving into 2012, and with Toyota increasing inventory levels.

Moving along, KBB also offered a January sales breakdown, as follows:

General Motors
Sales:
January 2012: 169,200
January 2011: 178,887
Market share:
January 2012: 18.8 percent
January 2011: 21.8 percent

Ford
Sales:
January 2012: 144,900
January 2011: 126,981
Market share:
January 2012: 16.1 percent
January 2011: 15.5 percent

Toyota
Sales:
January 2012: 121,500
January 2011: 115,856
Market share:
January 2012: 13.5 percent
January 2011: 14.1 percent

Chrysler Group
Sales:
January 2012: 93,600
January 2011: 70,993
Market share:
January 2012: 10.4 percent
January 2011: 8.7 percent

American Honda
Sales:
January 2012: 81,000
January 2011: 76,268
Market share:
January 2012: 9 percent
January 2011: 9.3 percent

Hyundai-Kia:
Sales:
January 2012: 80,100
January 2011: 65,002
Market share:
January 2012: 8.9 percent
January 2011: 7.9 percent

Nissan North America:
Sales:
January 2012: 79,200
January 2011: 71,847
Market share:
January 2012: 8.8 percent
January 2011: 8.8 percent