Overall used-vehicle sales this month are on pace to beat last September’s total by more than 4 percent and there could be even more buyers waiting in the wings as pent-up demand increased for the third straight month, according to CNW Research.

In fact, CNW president Art Spinella said the need to replace older vehicles continues to be the “driving force” of the used-car market.

CNW is projecting that, industry-wide, there will be 3.66 million used sales this month (a sum that includes franchised and independent dealer sales plus private-party numbers). This would be a 4.2-percent improvement over last September and continues to put the used-car market on track to beat full-year 2012 figures.

The year-to-date figures mentioned in CNW’s latest Retail Automotive Summary (32.26 million) beat the year-ago figures by 3.5 percent.

The big story for September, CNW says, is the leap (albeit, expected) made by casual sales, which “regained momentum” and are expected to show a 20.6-percent improvement and hit 1.01 units.

“Most of the increase can be traced to back-to-school acquisitions, older models and lower private-party prices,” Spinella said in the report.

Meanwhile, franchised stores are projected to bring in 1.39 million used sales this month, which would be up from 1.34 million a year ago. Independents are expected to see their numbers fall 6.1 percent year-over-year with 1.25 million used sales.

“Franchised dealers are seeing a September gain that outpaces the year-to-date increase slightly (4.1 percent against 3.9 percent),” Spinella continued. “Independent dealers were active, but continue to be hardest hit by the increases in private-party sales.

“That’s somewhat deceiving, however, because there is a typical decline in the number of independent outlets at the end of the summer — more so this year than last.  Of the active independents, sales are actually on a par or slightly higher than last year.”

Looking forward, it appears the used-car market may have more good times in store.

The amount of consumers postponing a purchase who plan to buy within six months is at 98,500 for September, CNW indicates. Not only is this roughly a 3.7-percent year-over-year gain, it marks the third consecutive month-over-month increase.

“Equally important, the number still planning to acquire a car or truck remains at 94.75 percent, the second highest of 2013,” Spinella added.

The average delay time in September is 2.16 months, compared to 2.96 months a year ago.The delay time has fallen on a sequential basis for two months in a row. Year-over-year, it has dropped each month of 2013 except January.

What about those who delayed purchases earlier in the year? Well, CNW indicates that 91 percent of consumers postponing a purchase in the first quarter have now bought a car. On top of that, an additional 4 percent say they will do so in a month or two, at the most.

As for the shoppers who put off a purchase in Q2, 84 percent have gone back and purchased.

“Both return rates are above the averages for the past five years indicating the pent-up demand is turning into a robust pool of potential buyers,” Spinella noted.

Offering more context, he added: “Unlike the new-car market, the driving force in used remains the need to replace an aging vehicle. That will likely continue until October.”

Joe Overby can be reached at joverby@autoremarketing.com. Continue the conversation with Auto Remarketing on both LinkedIn and Twitter