Back in October, Tesla Motors made its Model S lease offer even more enticing to potential buyers with a deal through US Banks that lowered the cost of leasing and gave shoppers the option to return the vehicle after three months.

Consequently, potential lessees can now use the three-month lease escape as a type of long-term rental.

Chief executive officer Elon Musk calls this the “happiness guarantee,” as lessees are able to return the vehicle with no penalties and with future payments waived.

That said, there is one catch. Musk said if buyers choose to bring the leased vehicle back after three months, they are disqualified from immediately leasing another Tesla; he hasn’t specified how long the enforced wait will be.

Scot Hall, executive vice president of leasing marketplace Swapalease.com, offered his own analysis on this development, predicting that Tesla lessees may take advantage of “an early out” — just maybe not as soon three months.

After taking a look at the luxury lease exchange trends on Swapalease.com, Hall asserted most Tesla vehicles will be transferred within the first four to eight months of leasing.

“The fact that many will look to exchange a Tesla in such a short amount of time doesn’t mean it’s an unsuccessful lease program,” Hall said. “In fact, it might be the opposite. A healthy exchange rate on a lease keeps buyer demand healthy at all levels of the automotive channel.”

According to site data, all vehicles on Swapalease.com average an exchange window during the first year to 14 months of vehicle possession.

Hal took a look at some of the vehicles similar to the Tesla Model S — such as the BMW 7-Series or Mercedes-Benz S — and these numbers go down a bit.

For luxury lesees, the site shows these drivers look to exchange within the first 10 to 12 months of possession.

Hal predicts this rate will shorten to four to eight months for the Tesla Model S “because of heightened interest in upgrading, and to avoid the three-month return ‘no-lease’ penalty imposed by Tesla.”

Swapalease.com’s predictions come largely down to the assertion many Tesla drivers will be looking to upgrade their vehicle/technology sooner than other luxury makes.

And Hall is drawing from experience, as well. Swapalease.com recently received its first Tesla Model S in its lease transfer marketplace, and the vehicle was listed after just four months of driving.

But these lessees most likely won’t have any trouble transferring the vehicle, as demand remains high. Demand for the vehicle is healthy, Hal says, as consideration is 350 percent higher than that of its other luxury competitors on the site. 

Tesla management is also offering a buy-back guarantee for the Tesla Model S, through which the automaker is giving Tesla Model S owners the option to return the car after three years and recover 45 to 50 percent of its sticker price.

This program, as well as the company's new consumer leasing branch, may serve to source Tesla's future CPO program.