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TrueCar: April Used Sales Projections Off From Last Year
While projecting a healthy month-over-month gain, TrueCar.com predicted April’s used sales total to soften a bit from the same month a year ago.
Analysts estimated used sales for April to be 3,615,148 units, down 2.0 percent from April of last year but up 33.6 percent from March.
TrueCar indicated the ratio of new sales to used sales is estimated to be 1:3 for April.
Meanwhile the site’s April projection for new-vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is 1,195,809 units, up 3.4 percent from last April but off by 14.8 percent from March on an unadjusted basis.
TrueCar’s April forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 14.6 million new unit sales, up from 13.2 million in April 2011and the 14.4 million rate last month.
Analysts calculated April retail sales are predicted to rise 6.7 percent compared to April of 2011 but fall 9.5 percent from last month.
The site believes fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 18 percent of total industry sales this month
Furthermore, TrueCar pinpointed this month’s expected industry average incentive spending per unit at approximately $2,446, which represents a decrease of 4.7 percent from March and an increase of 5.6 percent from April of last year.
“The momentum built by the recovering economy and compelling product choices in the first quarter continued to fuel new-vehicle sales in April,” explained Jesse Toprak, vice president of market intelligence for TrueCar.com.
“Consumer demand for the smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles remain strong while the SUV and truck categories are not seeing any dramatic drop in sales — thanks to the introduction of several new models that offer significantly better fuel economy,” Toprak added.
| Manufacturer | April 2012 | % Change vs. March 2012 | % Change vs. April 2011 |
| Chrysler | 138,025 | -15.5% | +17.7% |
| Ford | 181,898 | -18.4% | -3.9% |
| General Motors | 209,399 | -9.4% | -10.0% |
| Honda | 115,105 | -9.4% | -7.8% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 112,615 | -11.5% | +3.5% |
| Nissan | 86,921 | -36.2% | +21.5% |
| Toyota | 183,096 | -9.9% | +14.8% |
| Volkswagen | 42,501 | -11.8% | +10.2% |
| Industry | 1,195,809 | -14.8% | +3.4% |
| Manufacturer | April 2012 | March 2012 | April 2011 |
| Chrysler | 11.5% | 11.6% | 10.1% |
| Ford | 15.2% | 15.9% | 16.4% |
| General Motors | 17.5% | 16.5% | 20.1% |
| Honda | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.8% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% |
| Nissan | 7.3% | 9.7% | 6.2% |
| Toyota | 15.3% | 14.5% | 13.8% |
| Volkswagen | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| Manufacturer | April 2012 | % Change vs. March 2012 | % Change vs. April 2011 | Total Spending |
| Chrysler | $3,071 | -6.1% | +10.3% | $423,833,509 |
| Ford | $2,558 | -9.9% | +6.6% | $465,269,011 |
| General Motors | $3,156 | -3.4% | +2.9% | $660,816,079 |
| Honda | $2,398 | +8.0% | +10.5% | $275,972,017 |
| Hyundai/Kia | $1,223 | -1.1% | -4.4% | $137,729,026 |
| Nissan | $2,723 | -10.7% | +36.4% | $236,708,639 |
| Toyota | $1,823 | +4.4% | -2.9% | $333,721,236 |
| Volkswagen | $2,277 | -6.1% | +25.2% | $96,770,490 |
| Industry | $2,446 | -4.7% | +5.6% | $2,925,312,446 |
After sharing all of the data by brand, TrueCar.com senior analyst Kristen Andersson elaborated about Toyota’s readings.
“Toyota has fully recovered from inventory shortages caused by last year’s earthquake and tsunami and have recouped most of their lost market share in April,” Andersson insisted.
“The automaker will post their highest market share since December 2010 led by sales of fuel-efficient vehicles like the Camry, Prius and Corolla,” she added.
TrueCar.com reiterated that it bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data such as major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts and CPI.
The site added it does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
