Tesla Motors’ non-traditional direct-to-consumer sales model has landed the automaker atop auto industry news this spring, while also leaving many dealers throughout the country up in arms. But little has been said regarding the young company’s potential effect on the used-car market.

To get some insight into residual values and the future market for used Teslas, Auto Remarketing reached out to remarketing experts from a variety of backgrounds.

Edmunds.com director of remarketing Joe Spina had some interesting speculations, noting potential used-market impact for Tesla may depend on the outcome of  recent lawsuits and legislation opposing the company’s direct-to-consumer sales model.

In fact, Tesla chief executive officer Elon Musk is currently fighting for Tesla’s sales model plan.  Musk explained  in the company’s annual meeting on Tuesday that the traditional way of selling cars in the U.S. would “hamper” the 10-year-old  automaker's growth prospects, Reuters reported.

Depending on how this plays out, how will competitors react if Tesla continues with its current business model? Spina said this may have a direct affect on how Tesla models impact the used market.

“I would think any impact they have on the used market would be influenced by how competitors react to their business model. If other companies think they have a competitive advantage, even if they are not directly competing with Tesla, they may try to either prevent Tesla from having an overhead cost advantage or try something new of their own,” Spina said. “And if sales continue to do well, it could encourage some of the mainstream makers to make available some low-volume competitors.”

But Tesla may not have a significant place in the used market for years to come, since the company’s registration rates are still so low.

According to Larry Dixon, senior manager of market intelligence at NADA Used Car Guide, “The used market for Tesla is miniscule, which is not surprising given the limited the number of Tesla vehicles sold new.”

Per R.L. Polk data, just 1,371 new Tesla Roadsters were registered between 2008 and 2012, and the company has recorded only 230 registrations for used Roadsters through April of this year.

Another element to consider, which of course will directly impact on the used market for Teslas, is consumer interest.

Kevin Filan, vice president of customer marketing and industry relations at AutoTrader.com, said, “We expect interest in Teslas to remain strong in the near future, particularly with Fisker out of the mix in the EV market.”

That said, Tesla is obviously a low volume manufacturer, and Filan contends that “early adopters who have purchased Teslas likely have more of an affinity for their vehicle than the average car shopper, which could lead them to hold on to it longer.”

This trend would cut down on the level of Teslas entering the future used market dramatically.

And market trends already in place may affect interest in used Teslas, as well.

“On the used side, the wider population is still unsure about purchasing EVs, and they may have less of an appetite for risk than original Tesla buyers. So, the market for used Teslas is likely to remain small until the volume increases and the technology and longevity is proven enough to alleviate the concerns of the average car shopper,” Filan explained.

That said, Filan also explained that the used automotive marketplace has routinely viewed high-end, hard-to-acquire new vehicles as “valuable.”

“As long as the Tesla vehicles hold up in terms of initial quality, the interest and demand, though relatively small, will likely be larger than supply of available vehicles,” Filan said.

Will They Retain Their Value?

Though Tesla’s penetration rates are still low, it will also be interesting to see whether the company’s depreciation rates fall and whether they drop in similar rates as other electric and plug-in vehicles.

For the Tesla Roadster, Dixon cited two reasons why prices may remain strong for this model: the “very small number of Tesla Roadsters produced, and it was the first production version of an exotic EV sold in the U.S.”

The story may be a bit different for the Model S; though Dixon said it is still too early to tell how prices for the model will fair.

However, “We do know that its volume will be substantially higher than it was for the discontinued Roadster,” he added.

In fact, per LMC Automotive, Tesla already sold 8,900 Model S units through May of this year.

“The increase in supply — particularly as time passes and the number of Tesla vehicles in operation grows — will have some bearing on used-vehicle prices,” Dixon said.

Eric Ibara, residual value analyst at Kelley Blue Book’s KBB.com, also offered some predictions regarding Tesla S depreciation rates, explaining that the unit’s high price tag may prove beneficial to retaining value.

“It’s still too early to tell but it is possible that the Tesla S may not depreciate as quickly as other EV's we've seen to date.  Due to its higher list price, the federal tax credit has a lesser impact on Tesla's used-car value when expressed as a percent of MSRP,” said Ibara. 

“Furthermore, high-end sports cars tend to hold their value well. So while we can't say definitively that the Tesla S will do better than the Leaf or the Volt, I can't rule it out, either.  We'll have a better position a little later in the year.”

Also, analysis from NADA’s recent paper titled,  “Plug-in Electric Vehicles:  Market Analysis and Used Price Forecast,” may hold some bearing on Tesla, as well, though the report did not cover the automaker’s models directly.

“Some of the factors affecting used PEV demand — durability and maintenance concerns as technology ages, infrastructure and range limitations (although this is less of a concern on a Tesla due to the larger battery system), and advances in internal combustion engine powertrains — will likely influence used Tesla prices to some degree as well,” Dixon said.

Also, one may look at trend already seen in similar markets as a predictor for Tesla depreciation rates.

Edmunds’ Spina added: “A very expensive, high-tech vehicle … one whose limited audience would be exhausted relatively quickly, would generally depreciate at a faster rate than a similar, more affordable vehicle to the masses.”