David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, suspects that two factors could “hint of future default rate increases.” However, auto financing wasn’t one of the ones Blitzer mentioned on Tuesday when the June S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices were released.

The June auto loan default rate came in at 0.91 percent, down 1 basis point from May but 6 basis points higher than the same month a year ago.

The composite rate — based on a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults according to data through June — ticked up 1 basis point from the previous month to 0.82 percent in June.

Analysts from S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian noted the first mortgage default rate also inched up to 0.65 percent in June — 2 basis points higher than the prior month.

The bank card default rate remained unchanged in June, recording a default rate of 3.11 percent for the second month in a row.

Three of the five major cities included in the monthly update saw their overall default rates increase in June.

Dallas reported a default rate of 0.74 percent, up 5 basis points from May.

Miami’s default rate increased for the fourth consecutive month, up 4 basis points to a default rate of 1.31 percent.

Chicago’s default rate moved 3 basis points from the prior month to land at 1.01 percent.

New York recorded a default rate of 0.83 percent, down 6 basis points for the month.

Los Angeles reported a default rate of 0.67 percent, unchanged from May.

“Looking at the economy and credit conditions, American consumers are in good shape,” Blitzer said. “The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices covering mortgages and auto loans are within a few basis points of the lowest levels seen in 12 years, while the bank card default index is only 62 basis points above its low.

“Economic conditions are also favorable with continued low inflation and low interest rates, declining unemployment, a rising stock market and modest economic growth,” he continued. “Consumers recognize the positive environment: consumer confidence is high and retail sales were up in June.”

Nonetheless, Blitzer closed his monthly assessment by looking forward.

“Despite the low default rates and positive economic conditions, some factors hint of future default rate increases,” he said.

“First, the bank card default rates have risen over the last 11 months and consumers continue to apply for additional accounts,” Blitzer continued. “Second, personal income growth is weak, only slightly ahead of inflation.

“At some point, inflation will move back to the Fed's 2 percent target or higher and interest rates could even creep up — events that could strain consumers unless gains in wages accelerate,” he went on to say.

Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, analysts reiterated the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien.

The indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.

Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.