The certified pre-owned vehicle market in the first three months of the year reached a combined tally of 646,390 sales, which Edmunds.com says is a first-quarter record.  The Q1 sum is also a 5.2-percent year-over-year increase, Edmunds reported in its Q1 Used Vehicle Market Report released Thursday.

But the fact that CPO penetration of franchised dealer used-car sales remained essentially static from a year ago at 21.7 percent surprised the team at Edmunds.

Typically, current-year CPO parallels leasing from three years prior, explained Edmunds director of industry analysis Jessica Caldwell.

And with off-lease volume being the story of the year in the used-car market, it’s a bit puzzling as to why CPO hasn’t yet taken a greater share of the franchised used market.

In due course, though, certified should pick up a bigger piece of that pie, she said.

“The inventory is there,” Caldwell said in a phone interview Wednesday afternoon. “There’s nowhere really for it to go at this point but up. So, I think that’s why it was a bit surprising.”

Edmunds is anticipating the CPO share of franchised used sales to increase as the year goes on. It may be an odd timing situation, Caldwell said, where more lease returns are hitting the market later, therefore bumping the full-year CPO penetration rate higher than what was seen in Q1.

So, is 25 percent CPO penetration too lofty of a target?

Caldwell doesn’t think so, considering the leasing rates in recent years. 

In 2012, lease penetration for new-car retail was about 22 percent, she said, and then it climbed to about 26 percent in 2013. It’s only gone up from there, getting close to 29 percent in 2015, Caldwell said.

“When you look at CPO, there is that room to grow, especially when you’re looking at 29 percent of a much higher total volume new market,” she said.

It might just take some time. 

But look for that CPO share to rise.