The number of lease returns in 2013 is likely to climb by nearly half-a-million units year-over-year, according to Edmunds.com, which expects more than 2.5 million leases to reach end-of-term next year.

That would be the highest number of lease terminations since 2010, creating what could be a flood of potential used inventory for dealers.

When asked what impact this boost in lease returns will have on used supply for dealers — and whether these stores would see some supply relief — Edmunds executive director of statistical analysis Ray Zhou anticipates a beneficial scenario for dealers.

He said "this definitely will increase the supply for the newer used vehicles, plus more trade-ins from new-vehicle buyers (the trade-in percentage for the new vehicle buyers increased from the low 40 percent to close to 50 percent)."

Not to mention, new-car sales will likely benefit, as well.

In fact, in an analysis released Thursday, Edmunds explained that it’s this influx of lessees returning to market that will be the predominant force behind an anticipated 4-percent leap in new-vehicle sales.

“A key reason that sales will increase at a faster rate than drivers in 2013 is that substantially more car leases will terminate in 2013 than in 2012, increasing the pool of likely buyers,” wrote Edmunds chief economist Lacey Plache in her analysis.

“The growth in lease returners reflects the slowdown in leasing during the recession that bottomed out in 2009, resulting in many fewer lessees available to return to market in 2012,” Plache continued. The revival of leasing since 2010 should noticeably impact new-car sales in 2013.”

That said, Edmunds tempered its expectations for new sales by stressing the implications of a struggling domestic and international economy.

“2013 will likely be the first year of non-double-digit sales growth since the recovery began in 2010,” Plache said. “Economic uncertainty at home and spillover effects from slowing economies abroad will continue to slow the pace of American economic growth, including car sales. But many of the same positive factors in play now will continue to support car sales momentum in 2013.”

More Details on Leasing

Going back to the leasing data, the site’s chief economist noted that when comparing expectations for 2013 against 2012, the number of lessees returning to market will likely climb by 484,000 next year.

This assumes that “70 percent of 2010 leases were three-year leases, and 30 percent of 2011 leases were two-year leases and that 75 percent of lease expirations result in the lease or purchase of a new car,” Plache wrote.

The 2.5 million or so lease terminations projected for next year compare to less than 2 million estimated for 2012, according to data Edmunds compiled into charts on its website.  In 2011, the number was about halfway between 2 million and 2.5 million lease terminations.

Just a shade less than 3 million leases came to an end in 2010, after more than 3 million leases drew to a close in 2009.

The leasing projections from Edmunds reflect some of what the National Auto Auction Association discussed in its Auction Industry Report following the second quarter.

Through the halfway point of 2012, the year-over-year declines in fleet/lease and manufacturer/factory consignment volume had slowed down for three straight quarters, NAAA indicated in the analysis released last month.

And the association is anticipating that fleet/lease and manufacturer/factory volume will actually climb next year, helping overall auction volume show a "noticeable" uptick. 

This, of course, will give dealers more supply to fill their used-car lots.

“This year, as the negative impact of weak new sales in 2008 and 2009 on current FL-MF (fleet/lease and manufacturer/factory) auction volume lessens, total volume is expected to increase during the second half,” explained NAAA economist Ira Silver.

“Next year, we expect the negative impact from FL-MF on total auction volume to turn into a positive, which when combined with continued dealer consignment growth, will result in a noticeable overall gain,” he added.