Used cars have gotten more expensive. At least, that is one fact consumers and dealers have come to expect during the past few years.

But, after three years of “dramatic growth”, the price hike slowed a bit this year, according to NADA Used Car Guide.

In fact, the projected average price of used cars and light trucks for 2012 (almost $14,500) is only 1 percent above the 2011 level, NADA UCG said in a report released this week.

This data is part of what officials are calling a “continuing trend of decreased prices for used vehicles.”

During the two-year period from 2009 to 2011, the average price of used vehicles up to eight years old increased by 19.7 percent, or $2,356.

But from 2010 to 2011, the average price increased 7.6 percent, according to NADA UCG.

“This year, used-vehicle price growth hasn't been as robust as the past few years, in part because traditional new-vehicle buyers who purchased used vehicles during the recent economic downturn are returning to the new-vehicle market,” said Jonathan Banks, executive automotive analyst with the NADA Used Car Guide.

The report — NADA Used Vehicle Price Forecast: Winter/Spring 2012–2013 —  noted that the last few months of 2012 as well as spring of next year both gasoline and employment will have a “neutral” impact on used-vehicle prices over the next two quarters.

“Although a prevailing environment of tight late-model supply will help mitigate the downward pressure placed on used prices by the gradual transference of substitute demand back toward the new vehicle market, it won’t completely offset it,” NADA UCG said.

These factors in mind, used-vehicle price growth is expected to stay relatively flat over the next six months.

In fact, NADA forecasts that used prices in the fourth quarter of this year will fall by a mild 2.7 percent relative to the preceding quarter, and as a result, prices will be 0.7 percent above the average recorded in the fourth quarter of 2011.

2013: First Quarter Predictions

And though NADA projects that used prices in the first quarter of 2013 will increase by 5.2 percent compared to the last quarter of this year, this rise is still quite a bit less dramatic than in years past.

“The predicted increase for the first quarter is 1.5 percentage points lower than the 6.7 percent rise recorded in the first quarter of 2012, when lower gasoline prices and strong employmentgrowth helped push used prices up more significantly,” NADA UCG explained.

This expected price increase will put prices at 0.8 percent below the average recorded in the first quarter of 2012.

“While the loss in average value is small, this will mark the first time since 2009 that prices in the first quarter were lower than they were in the preceding year,” NADA UCG said.

Where the Market is Headed

Overall, NADA UCG says the used market remains “favorable” for dealers.

But there may be one factor that could threaten the balance.

NADA expects  “the shift in preference toward the new vehicle market will” to be mildly detrimental to used-vehicle prices.

That said, other factors, such as tight supply, “will help support used prices and minimize value losses associated with emerging new-vehicle preference,” NADA UCG added.

OEMs' actions will also act to keep used-vehicle prices relatively stable.

NADA UCG noted manufacturers continue to demonstrate “prudence in their approach to both production and incentives.”

And current data suggests that future new-vehicle production will remain reasonable.

Why?

NADA UCG cites sales growth and increased  incentive spending (0.9 percent year-to-date over 2011) has helped keep OEMs away from overproduction.

“At least for the near term, NADA expects these trends to continue and doesn’t expect undue downward pressure on used vehicle prices from overproduction or new vehicle subsidies,” officials said.

The organization also noted a few other factors that may be contribute to a healthy used-car market: improving credit accessibility and the recovery in the housing market.

“And even though job growth through the first quarter of next year is expected to be minimal, it’s anticipated that it will steadily improve as the year wears on,” officials added.

NADA UCG expects this consistent growth will help support the release of used-vehicle demand from the set of consumers who traditionally purchase only used cars and trucks.

“Overall, NADA’s near-term outlook for the used vehicle market is positive. While used-vehicle prices are expected to flatten out and then dip slightly in the first quarter relative to year-ago levels, prices aren’t expected to drop precipitously and instead will remain high by historical standards,” officials concluded.