Most of the off-lease volume that makes its way to Asbury Automotive Group stores this year will end up as certified pre-owned vehicle inventory.

“They’ll come mainly over a six-month period, and we look at that as an opportunity for us,” Asbury chief operating officer David Hult said during the retailer’s earnings conference call last week.

Turns out, Asbury is likely not alone.

Manheim’s 2016 Used Car Market Report indicates that swelling off-lease volumes should push already record-high certified sales to new heights in coming years.

New lease originations hit a record last year, nearly reaching the 4-million mark and beating the 2009 “cyclical trough” by 2.8 million units, the report said.

With six straight years of rising lease originations, look for off-lease volumes to have a “steady rise” over the next few years.

Manheim Consulting pinpointed off-lease volume for 2015 at 2.5 million units, with 2016 volume projected to reach higher than 3 million. They are then expected to eclipse 3.5 million units in 2017 and approach 4 million in 2018.

In the report, Cox Automotive chief economist Tom Webb (who authored the report) said that 2016 is expected to be another record year for CPO “as growing off-lease volumes provide both the need and ability for further growth.”

He adds in the report: “There is also the desire to grow CPO sales, since they enable dealers to protect gross margins, improve turn rates, or boost F&I and service income. And, when CPO programs are properly structured and effectively marketed by manufacturers and dealers, the programs can provide all three of those benefits simultaneously.”

Webb points that that CPO has “at the least the potential” to keep on greatly expanding, but that will largely depend on marketing from OEMs and dealer CPO profitability.

And keep in mind, the dealer is the one who decides to certify or not.

 “And they’re going to make the decision on the basis of whether it’s beneficial to them, therefore it’s got to have a gross that takes care of the additional costs that are involved and are increased financing opportunities or increases the inventory turn rate,” Webb said in an interview with Auto Remarketing last week.

“But facing from the dealer’s standpoint, they have to understand and sell the program to the customer,” he added.

Speaking of consumer awareness, that has been a relatively hot topic as CPO continues to expand. So we asked Webb whether he finds it to be at a healthy level.

 “I think there’s a general awareness and understanding, and that’s why it has been successful,” Webb said. “ I would say, however, that understanding is probably not all that deep in terms of, one, the differences between different programs — they’re certainly all not the same.”