TrueCar.com Predicts Highest SAAR Since August '09

With incentive spending on the rise and SAAR expected to reach the highest level seen since August 2009, TrueCar.com believes that consumers are “no longer dragging their feet” when it comes to buying a new car.

"Consumers are no longer dragging their feet on new vehicle purchases as they feel the economy is moving in the right direction, " said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends and insights for TrueCar.com. "This will be the fifth straight month where SAAR will rise and the highest we've seen in over two years."

According to the company’s sales and incentives forecast for this month, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate sits at 13.4 million new-car sales, up from 13.1 million last month and 12.2 million year-over-year.

So what is contributing to the climb? Though many of the company's  predictions for new- and used-car sales are slightly down since September, the majority of categories assessed by TrueCar.com are up significantly year-over-year.

First highlighting the forecast for used cars, sales are estimated to sit at 2,741,442 units  this month, up 5.7 percent year-over-year, but down 15.1 percent from the past month. Moreover, the ratio of new-to-used is estimated to be 1-3 for this month, according to TrueCar.com.

Moving on to the new-car segment, new light vehicle sales for this month are expected to reach 1,035,042 units, up 9.0 percent year-over-year and down 1.7 percent from September of this year.

Retail sales are up 9.8 percent, compared to October of last year, but saw a slight dip (0.5 percent) from September.

And a few domestic nameplates are expected to take some significant pieces of the market pie this month, according to TrueCar.com’s forecast, yet, most have seen a slight decline from September.

General Motors is expected to sell 192,239 units this month, marking a 7.2 percent decline from September, but also a 4.9 -percent increase year-over-year.

Ford is expected to come out on top this month in terms of sales. The Blue Oval is expected to sell 169,376 units, marking a 7.4 percent increase year-over-year with a 3.1 percent fall from this past month.

Moving on to how foreign automakers are faring this month, interestingly, one Japanese company seems to be recovering faster than most.

Toyota is expected to sell 135,064 units this month, computing into an 11.2 percent increase from September. That said, the company still has some ground to make up if it wants to get back to last year’s levels; October’s numbers showed a 7.2-percent decline from the same month last year.

Interestingly, high incentive spending seems to be bringing customers onto dealers' lots, contributing to the high forecasted SAAR, as well.

In fact, according to TrueCar.com, Honda reached its highest incentive spending level ever recorded. The automaker is expected to spend $2,380 per unit on incentives this month, marking a 1.8-percent increase from last month and a 17.7-percent climb year-over-year.

"Japanese automakers have seen substantial improvement in inventory this month and buyers are responding to the better availability of product as well as higher incentives," explained Kristen Andersson, automotive analyst at TrueCar.com.