Used-vehicle sales this month are likely to be north of 3.4 million, says TrueCar.com, which released its monthly new- and used-car projections on Monday.

Specifically, TrueCar is forecasting an estimated 3.437 million used sales for March with a projected new-to-used ratio of 1:2.3.

The firm is calling for 1.478 million new-vehicle sales (including fleet sales) for the month, which would be a 1.8 year-over-year hike and more than a 24-percent improvement from February — but still not as high as analysts would have liked, said TrueCar and ALG executive Larry Dominique.

“The spring thaw has resulted in a slight improvement in vehicle sales, but not nearly the improvement analysts hoped they would see,” said Dominique, who is president of ALG and executive vice president of TrueCar. “With incentives rising at a rate four-times greater than sales, expect an aggressive final week of selling in March and an equally aggressive April.

“An incentive-fueled battle is on the horizon.”

Speaking of incentives, TrueCar anticipates approximate per unit spending will climb 7.9 percent year-over-year (and 2.6 percent month-over-month) to reach $2,773 for the month.

The firm is projecting a new-car seasonally adjusted annualized rate (“SAAR”) of 15.7 million units. This would a 3.1 percent year-over-year increase and a 2.8-percent gain from February.

The company’s full-year new-vehicle sales guidance remains at 16.1 million units.