Used-vehicle prices were down this past February, and the trend isn’t expected to stop anytime soon.

According to the latest RVI Risk Outlook report, greater incentive activity and a more competitive new-vehicle market — as well as increasing used supply — will combine to put even more downward pressure on pre-owned prices.

“The upturn in the U.S economy and the increase in new-vehicle sales are expected to contribute to an increase in the supply of used vehicles over the next few years. Competition among manufacturers and incentives activity is also expected to increase,” the report stated. “Due to these factors, used-vehicle prices in the U.S. are expected to fall 10 percent (relative to current levels) by 2018.”

The industry is expecting a surge of off-lease vehicles to hit the auctions this year, and it seems the trend will continue into coming years, as well, judging by 2014 statistics.

According to the report, 2014 was a strong year for leasing. In the fourth quarter, the lease penetration rate was 19.5 percent, and in 2014 as a whole, leasing accounted for 19.6 percent of U.S. new auto sales.

“We expect a higher lease penetration to continue for 2015 and 2016 model year vehicles,” RVI analysts predicted.

This past month, used-vehicle prices were already on the way down. According to the report, used prices, seasonally adjusted for vehicles 2 years to 5 years old, had fallen off 1.1 percent from January, according to RVI data.

Taking a look at recent residual movement by segment, full-size pickup prices were one of the best performing groups. This segment saw a slight decline of 0.3 percent, much lower than the average for February.

That said, RVI analysts said the used supply of full-size pickups is expected to ramp up in coming months, putting downward pressure on used prices for this segment.

In February, used supply of full-size pickups was already up by 4.5 percent year-over-year.

RVI expects this segment to see a price drop of 14.5 percent by 2018, caused in part to excess used supply as well as an expected rise in long-term gas prices.

On the other end of the retention spectrum last month, the luxury full-size sedan saw the largest drop in price, falling by 4.1 percent from January.

The luxury SUV (up 0.9 percent) and the full-size van segment ( up0.2 percent) were the only segments to see prices rise at all last month, according to the RVI report.