After wrapping up the weakest third quarter for used prices observed since 2002, fourth-quarter rates are expected to continue dropping as fall marks one of the softest seasons for the lanes.

Black Book analysts reported on the eight segments expected to lead Q4 depreciation. The team predicts luxury-level segments, which has been dropping in price at a rapid rate, will see the largest price declines in the last quarter of the year.

This movement will be largely driven by off-lease returns in lease-heavy segments, according to Black Book.

Luxury-level cars are expected to see a 6.7-percent drop from Q3, followed by the near-luxury cars with a decline of 4.7 percent and the prestige luxury cars with a slide of 4.6 percent.

Leading the pack for year-over-year drops is predicted to be the prestige luxury cars. Black Book predicts this segment will end the year with prices down 18.9 percent from 2013 rates.

An as gas prices drop and demand softens, entry-level and small cars are also expected to see noticeable price drops.
 
The entry midsize cars are predicted to lead with the biggest drop, falling by 7.5 percent from the third quarter and 13.7 percent year-over-year. The compact cars will most likely follow with a 6.3-percent drop from Q3. Next up is the upper midsize cars with an expected drop of 7.1 percent.

“Fuel prices and off-lease returns will continue to have a noticeable impact on luxury-level and smaller car segments through the remainder of the year,” said Ricky Beggs, editorial director of Black Book. “The compact crossovers are experiencing higher than normal depreciation because of the large number of various models available within the segment.”

Beggs pointed out two more segments expected to see higher depreciation than most: the full-size SUVs and the compact CUVs.

The smaller compact CUVs are expected to see prices drop 5.3 percent from Q3, while the full-size SUVs are expected to see a 4.5-percent slide.