The wholesale market closed the year out on a slow note with market activity down and auction prices falling.

According to the latest Guidelines report from NADA Used Car Guide, prices of used vehicles up to 8 years old fell by almost 2 percent in December.

This decline was much larger than the 0.5-percent decline averaged over the past five years during the same period, and marked the weakest result for the month since 2003, NADA Used Car Guide reported.

Consequently, the NADA Used Car Guide seasonally adjusted used-vehicle price index dropped by 1.6 percent from November to 122.4, which was down almost 2 percent from December 2014’s levels.

And although December’s prices weakened, the report stated 2015 was one of the strongest years on record for used-car prices from a big-picture perspective.

“In index terms, used-vehicle prices slipped by just 0.3 percent from the all-time high averaged in 2014, and while depreciation increased from 12.7 percent to 14 percent, the rate of decline remained moderate by historical standards,” NADA Used Car Guide’s Jonathan Banks said in the report.

Looking forward to the first quarter, of course, most everyone in the auto retail business is getting ready for tax season.

And although used-vehicle prices are once again expected to improve over the first quarter before dropping as we head into summer, the jump might not be quite as big as usual.

“Coinciding with the steady receipt of tax refund checks, used vehicle prices gradually improve over a given first quarter before tapering off as spring progresses,” Banks said. “While we expect a similar pattern to play out over the next few months, we believe higher supply will dampen this year’s Q1 rise.”

NADA UCG expects the December-to-January price change to range from flat to a 0.5-percent increase. Then, prices are predicted to jump by about 1 percent per month in February and March.

January’s results will probably stay in line with similar seasonal trends seen before for the month, but February and March might be a bit unusual.

Banks explained that the 1.5-percent  to 2-percent increase in prices expected by the end of the quarter is much less than the 5 percent average over 2010-2015. Last year, prices were up by 4 percent from December to March.

Taking a look at segment movement, the prices of large SUVs, large pickups, midsize vans and mid-size pickups are expected to increase by more than 2 percent by the end of March.  

On the other hand, prices of subcompact cars, compact cars and luxury large cars should stay pretty steady with December levels.