Analysis from Black Book and Manheim for how the wholesale market behaved in August showed somewhat similar conclusions even though the exact figures each company shared differed slightly.

As the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index retreated for the fourth month in a row, Black Book data showed the average price of a used vehicle for the model years 2009 through 2013 saw a slight improvement in August. Black Book pegged the overall depreciation dip for August at 1.3 percent compared with 1.5 percent in July.

Analysts found that domestic cars changed the most by depreciating 2.5 percent while import cars depreciated 1.6 percent. Black Book said domestic trucks depreciated 1.1 percent; and import trucks softened by 0.8 percent.

Black Book reiterated that average pre-recession depreciation is historically between 1 percent and 2 percent monthly. Analysts expect this year’s overall depreciation figure to come in at 13.5 percent.

“The lower depreciation rate in August counters the expected seasonal pattern, particularly since the new 2015 models typically force larger depreciation on late-model units this month, and second-half depreciation is still expected to accelerate through the remainder of 2014,” Black Book said.

For the second straight month, analysts noted, full-size passenger vans showed the strongest monthly retention, recording an uptick of 0.1 percent and becoming the only segment showing positive change. Vehicles in this segment include the Dodge Sprinter, Ford E-Series and Chevrolet G-Series.

Black Book pointed out that compact SUVs saw the second-best monthly depreciation rate, ticking down just 0.2 percent for vehicles such as the Jeep Wrangler and Nissan Xterra. Analysts computed the average segment price at the end of August was $20,293, a 5.3-percent drop from year-ago levels ($21,425).

Meanwhile, for the third-straight month, Black Book indicated premium sporty cars led all car segments with the lowest depreciation, registering a decline of 1.1 percent in August and 0.9 percent in July. Leading the charge are vehicles such as the BMW 6-Series, Mercedes-Benz CL-Class, BMW M6, Audi R8, Audi S8, Mercedes-Benz SL-Class and Cadillac XLR. The average segment price at the end of August was $48,151, representing a 12.3-percent drop-off compared to a year earlier ($54,898).

Conversely, Black Book determined entry-level cars led all segments with the highest monthly depreciation in August at 4.1 percent. Vehicles in this segment include the Chevrolet Aveo, Honda Fit, Kia Rio, Nissan Versa and Toyota Yaris. The average segment price at the end of August was $8,157, settling 14.7 percent lower than the same month last year ($9,562).

And cargo minivans led all truck segments with the highest monthly depreciation at 3.3 percent, covering units such as the Dodge Caravan, Ford Freestar, Dodge Grand Caravan and Ford Transit. The average segment price at the end of August decreased to $11,192, signaling a 11.9 percent change from a year ago ($12,698).

Black Book editorial director Ricky Beggs — one of the featured panelists during Used Car Week — mentioned that the top 10 best-performing segments were all trucks, and the four truck segments not in the top 10 were compact CUVs (down 1.3 percent monthly), passenger minivans (down 1.5 percent), full-size CUVs (down 2.1 percent) and cargo minivans.

“The near-term outlook for trucks continues to show significant retention strength and these segments are clearly driving the industry as a whole,” Beggs said. “While the trucks are outperforming seasonal trends currently we’re not surprised to see segments such as entry-level cars and entry mid-size cars showing the largest depreciation.”

3 Factors Push Manheim Index Lower

Turning back to the latest report from Manheim, chief economist Tom Webb — who also will be featured throughout Used Car Week —  indicated that wholesale used vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) declined 0.7 percent in August. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and brought the August Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index reading to 121.8, down 0.4 percent from a year ago.

Webb explained the recent downward movement in wholesale pricing reflects three elements, including:

— A reversion to trend levels after an extended period of exceptionally strong pricing

— Increased wholesale supplies; and

— In recent months, moderating retail demand

Webb also pointed out that August’s index reading of 121.8 puts it right on the trend line for the entire series dating back to 1995.

“The trend line naturally has an upward slope since the Index represents a dollar amount, not a residual percentage,” Webb said. “Fundamentals, and history, now suggest the index will move into an extended period below trend.

“However, we do not expect that the coming deviation from trend will be as pronounced as the 10 performance underperformance in early 2003 or 17 percent shortfall that occurred in December 2008,” he continued. “In both of those instances, a weakening economy and tight credit amplified the normal cyclical swing in wholesale pricing. Today, employment growth is improving and retail credit conditions remain favorable.”

While the overall reading dipped 0.4 percent year-over-year, prices for two vehicle segments Manheim tracks for its monthly index reports moved higher. Leading the way was prices for trucks (up 6.4 percent) followed not too far behind by vans (up 3.6 percent).

The other four segments included in the index report all posted price declines, with luxury cars softening the most at 5.2 percent. Prices for compacts dipped 1.4 percent year-over-year as prices for both midsize cars and SUVs/CUVs each ticked 0.8 percent lower.

“Mileage and seasonally adjusted prices for major market classes showed only pickups and vans (especially cargo vans) up year-over-year. Luxury cars remained the segment with the largest decline in wholesale pricing over the past year, but the pace of decline for this segment in August was not out of line with the overall market,” Webb said.

“Our analysis of average mileage by price tiers showed that the strongest pricing in August remained in the $13,000 to $15,000 range, whereas the weakest pricing was in the $9,000 to $10,000 range,” he continued. “These trends were strongly consistent with the underlying shifts in auction availability.”

And as he always does, Webb gave an update on the rental-risk market where prices eased from record highs.

Manheim noted that auction prices for rental-risk units (unadjusted for mix and mileage) declined for the fourth consecutive month in August. The average price is now off approximately $1,200 from the all-time high reach in April, but down less than $300 from a year ago.

Webb mentioned the index of rental risk pricing that adjusts for changes in mix and mileage was down $1,610 from its March peak and is down $470 from a year ago.

“Volumes sold at auction remained low in August, and average mileage slipped back below 40,000,” Webb said. “With new-vehicle sales into rental up 10 percent in August, some increased flow back into the wholesale market is inevitable, whether it is via the traditional auction process or some other channel.”