Along with his monthly look at the specialty markets, Black Book’s Ricky Beggs shared how recent changes in gas prices didn’t create wholesale price movements dealers might have anticipated.

The Black Book managing editor began his weekly online commentary, “Beggs on the Used Car Market,” by asking dealers a question.

Beggs wondered, “With gas prices settling down even lower this past week, wouldn’t you expect the car values to be a little weaker and the trucks to get a little stronger? This past week saw gas prices drop on a national average by 4 cents with a significant 10-cent decline in the price at the pump from April 2 through April 30.

“For those of you grabbing the green handle and pumping diesel fuel, it was a meager 1.2-cent decline week over week and 7 cents decline for the month,” Beggs added.

But with those fuel-cost movements in mind, Black Book adjusted an average of 1,765 vehicles and editors discovered overall car prices softened by $8, a little less than last week’s overall car decline of $13.

Beggs noted a $12 price jump for entry-level cars was overpowered by declines for premium sporty cars (down $36) and prestige luxury cars (down $26).

Before delving into specific truck numbers, Beggs said, “With gas getting more affordable the demand and price of trucks and utilities could easily have improved. But nothing in this industry is routine, normal or completely predictable anymore.”

Turns out, Black Book found that overall truck prices softened by $15, the largest declining amount for the past four weeks.

As five of the 14 truck segments increased, editors noticed the most consistent price strength continues to be with full-size SUVs, which moved $21 higher last week to extend a streak of gains to nine consecutive weeks. They also mentioned that luxury SUV prices declined by $75, which is less of a decline when compared to any of the previous four weeks for that segment.

In other wholesale activity, Black Book indicated that its editors and survey personnel are seeing more of used 2012 models hitting market channels.

“If this fits into your inventory needs, the market driven values of many 2012s can be found in whatever method you have selected to get your values from Black Book,” Beggs reiterated.

“However, remember that the 2011s and 2012s represent the most volatile model years,” he cautioned. “These late-model units will initially show up in the market at a strong value and not too far down the road as more volume hits the lanes, and generally decline the fastest.

“As one of our Florida survey personnel commented within his report ‘the 2011s and 2012s are a tough sell,’” Beggs added.

“The bottom line is this late-model used vehicle is a head-to-head comparison — and often cross-shopped — vehicle to a new model which has some incentive help from various sources,” Beggs went on to say.

Beggs wrapped up his weekly wholesale commentary by revealing more feedback from survey personnel.

“As we move solidly into May the aggressiveness is just not there and in many cases, as a dealer from Ohio and another from Wisconsin recently described to us, we are in a very selective market,” Beggs shared. “Touching on fuel prices again, a dealer from Tennessee said ‘panic buying of economy cars is gone.’

“With these varied comments, and movement in the market, at least with the Black Book data and tools, we are able to provide you with the most current market driven values always updated on a daily basis,” Beggs continued.

“Thank you for your business and let us know how you see the market when we meet you on the auction lanes,” he added.

Beggs’ video can be viewed below.

Specialty Markets: Spring and Early Summer Days Bring Stronger Trends

With the weather and wholesale activity heating up, Beggs stressed, “It’s full steam ahead for our editors in these specialty markets.

“With the economy continuing to steadily improve, consumer confidence is also at higher levels, thus loosening the grip on available spendable income,” he added.

Motorcycles and Powersports

Black Book determined positive news on the economy, coupled with the annual spring selling season, is currently driving auction prices higher in this market. Editors found that nearly all segments in the motorcycle and powersports market are trending upward this month but at a slightly slower rate than April.

Editors noticed the trend is especially true for the ATV segment, where prices are only up by an average of $44 per unit or about 1.5 percent.

“Most on- and off-road bikes are showing solid gains averaging $55 per unit, which is a 4.5-percent increase,” Beggs calculated.

Beggs also pointed out prices for personal watercraft and jet boats are up around 5 percent “as people around the country look forward to outdoor watersports activities now that warm weather is finally here.”

At the other end of the weather spectrum, Black Book found snowmobile prices are down 3.5 percent.

Editors indicated prices for a vast majority of street bikes and scooters are up by a little less than 3 percent while the V-Twin heavy cruiser market is up by a little more than 3 percent with the three- to seven-year-old models showing the strongest gains.

“This continues a trend we noted last month where older models are outpacing gains in one- and two-yea- old units,” Beggs stated. “Rather than being a negative reflection on the newer models, we see this as a positive sign that the used market is gaining in overall strength. 

“For the past few years we have consistently seen the one- and two-year-old units, especially the low-mileage ones, hold their value better than older units as value conscious customers looked to buy used instead of new to save money, while still wanting ‘newer’ units,” he continued.

“The return of a strong used market among the older vehicles hopefully indicates that we have once and for all turned the corner on the past several years of market volatility and generally softer values than we have seen since the recession began,” Beggs added.

Recreational Vehicles

Black Book said recreational vehicle values continue their seasonal climb, reflecting strong performances at the wholesale auctions by all types of units.

Editors indicated motor homes came in at an average wholesale price of $42,407, up $750 or 1.8 percent from last month and posting an average increase of $4,953 for the year.

Prices for towables, including travel trailers, fifth wheels and camping trailers, averaged $10,891, a jump of $816 or 8 percent from last month for an average lift of $1,134 for the year.

“Final April numbers are still coming in, but things look pretty strong, both in terms of bidders and sale prices,” Beggs surmised. “History tells us that RV values typically remain relatively unchanged throughout April with May wholesale values beginning a gradual decline, probably due to the fact that many dealers have already acquired the majority of their inventory for the upcoming selling season.

“We discussed the possible effects of rising fuel prices on RV sales last month, and are happy to report that we have seen no negative impact on values,” he continued. “And with fuel prices beginning to back off a bit, we do not foresee any fuel price related issues ahead in the near future. The lure of the RV and camping lifestyle has a pretty strong pull.”

CPI Collectible and Exotic Vehicles

Black Book noted collectible vehicle prices continue to rise across the board.

Prices for most American cars, including muscle cars, pony cars, and full sized postwar classics are up between 1 percent and 1.5 percent. Editors mentioned classic American pickup trucks have fared a bit better, up double the cars’ average at just above 3 percent. They added European sports car prices also have been doing well, up about 4 percent, with the red hot vintage exotic segment up almost 10 percent.

“The economy seems to be getting a little better every day, there is talk in the financial media of big IPOs and record profits and stock prices for big tech companies,” Beggs mentioned. "Both housing numbers and unemployment statistics have been headed in the right direction recently. Perhaps collectors who have been sitting on the sidelines are becoming a bit more comfortable with the economy, and are ready to make the collectible car purchase that they had been putting off.

“We will keep our eyes open for all the spring and summer auctions, shows, and cruise-ins around the country to see if and how long this strength continues,” he added.

Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks and Commercial Trailers

Black Book indicated the past month has seen a slight change in the medium duty side of the market.

“We had been seeing this segment staying fairly stable with just minimal price decreases,” Beggs recapped. “This past month, though not a large drop, we have seen the late-model trucks have a bigger drop than in previous months.

“A trend that does continue, as in past months, is that the older models are still moving up slightly,” he continued. “As has been the case, there is still not a large inventory of used medium-duty vehicles to choose from at the auctions.”

Black Book found the best retention segment month-over-month is the medium-duty gas models.

“Here has been a recent softening of fuel prices around the country; will this stop the drop in wholesale prices and maybe turn them back to the positive side? Only time will tell and once again we will be watching and reporting what happens,” Beggs offered.

Editors also determined May brought the market the first significant downward adjustment in heavy-duty truck values in quite some time.

“They are not as dramatic as some articles have mentioned, but never the less, they are significant because they are across the board and we will not be surprised if this trend will be followed next month with a little heavier decline in values based on what we have seen at the auctions lately,” Beggs projected.

“It seems to be obvious, to me, that the turn ins on the large orders are still running on the roads and will probably be left in service even longer due to the cutbacks in the orders placed and the reduction in the number of new truck orders going forward,” he continued.

“Dealers and buyers alike are finally realizing that the small number of clean available trucks is going to stay that way for a while. The trucking industry is determined to prevent the negative effects of a downturn in business like the one they have experienced in the past few years,” Beggs added.

“They are going to do more with less equipment and not have trucks sitting at the terminal, not bringing in revenue. First-quarter reports from truck lines, truck manufacturers, and various OEMs are showing good revenue and profit and could result in a record year for some industry members,” he went on to say.

Finally, Black Book noticed commercial trailer values continue to climb as the value these used trailers provide is “much stronger than the significantly higher new trailers.

Beggs concluded with, “So, for right now, it’s keep on trucking and don’t look back.”

Beggs’ specialty market video can be viewed below.