Many factors point to expanded used inventory for dealers in 2013, and as off-lease vehicle volume is predicted to grow this coming year, stores may find it easier to secure quality, used vehicles. And this may be particularly good news for your certified pre-owned department, says Black Book managing editor Ricky Beggs.

In fact, Black Book expects that come January, the rate of off-lease vehicle returns will start to build again. As a result, more CPO and used inventory will be available to dealers.

“The majority of this additional off-lease inventory is projected to come from domestic models reflecting their re-entrance into the lease pool in 2010,” officials noted.

This turn of events may come as welcome news to dealers, as the recession forced the number of leases written in 2008 and 2009 into a downward plunge.

On top of making it potentially easier for dealers to score used inventory, especially three- to five-year-old models, Black Book predicts volume growth in off-lease vehicles will “create a shift in normal springtime pricing patterns.”

Though the industry typically sees a rise in wholesale and used-car prices in the spring, Black Book contends the additional off-lease returns will place downward pricing pressures come April, May and June of the new year.

But there is one potential hiccup to the flow of these off-lease vehicles into the wholesale market:

“The real question at this time is trying to figure out how many of these drivers coming off leases will realize enough equity in the vehicle to buy out the lease, ultimately keeping that car out of supply,” said Beggs.

 But if these units do make it back into the supply flow, Beggs contends dealers will be looking to these vehicles to ramp up their certified departments.

“Dealers will be looking to expand their CPO programs as a way to create more of a market for this increased inventory in the coming months,” Beggs added.

NADA's Pricing Projections

On the pricing side of the used-car market, the latest issue of Guidelines from NADA Used Car Guide — which was released late Tuesday afternoon — noted that used depreciation was at 1 percent in November.

Much of the same is projected for this month before a modest turnaround to begin next year, the report said.

“As far as the next two months are concerned, NADA expects that used-vehicle depreciation in December will essentially match what was recorded last month and then turn slightly positive as is the seasonal norm in January,” NADA Used Car Guide's Jonathan Banks said in the report.

“In addition, the prevailing envi-ronment of tight late model used vehicle supply along with the boost in demand caused by Sandy will continue to see deprecia-tion mildly outperform pre-storm expectations over this period,” he added.