McLEAN, Va. -

Auction price drops are expected to remain consistent with last week’s movement, with wholesale prices once again predicted to drop by an average of 0.5 percent or $75, according to NADA’s AuctionNet data. But there's one exception.

Interestingly enough, even though overall price declines are predicted to be moderate this week, large pickups are expected to buck the trends and see the biggest price drop.

This segment has shown strong price retention through most all of 2014, but NADA expects this segment to drop by an average of 1 percent, or $225, this week.

In a recent interview with Black Book, ADESA chief economist Tom Kontos predicted price strength for trucks may begin to reverse in coming months, albeit the switch might come slow.

“There is a recovery in supply on the truck side … in that there is a greater availability of those used trucks — this will push prices down in the long run, but now it is actually helping prices because the dealers really need those cars, and independent truckers really need those trucks, as well,” Kontos explained.

In fact, prices for trucks have already started falling for auctions in the Northeast of the country, where Kontos said there is rapidly expanding supply.

“The Northeast has been an area where there is a high concentration of off-lease volumes, but at the same time, that was the part of the country that was impacted the most by weather,” Kontos said. “So that double whammy caused a greater amount of over-supply right now on the ground of used trucks coming out of off-lease and the rental fleets.

This week, smaller price declines are expected in most all other segments — ranging much closer to the industry average, according to NADA.

Midsize vans are expected to follow large pickups with the second-largest price drop, falling an expected $125.

Only one segment is expected to see prices rise at all this week: the midsize utilities. The segment is expected to see prices rise a slight 0.3 percent, or $50.

Large SUV prices are expected to remain level with last week’s results. Smaller declines are expected in all other segments.

Four- and two-week AuctionNet wholesale average prices are created by collecting all AuctionNet records for vehicles up to 5 years of age for a specified period of time.  Prices are then adjusted for changes in mileage and mix.

Current week prices are based on NADA's proprietary used-vehicle value model which includes assumptions for new-vehicle prices, used-vehicle supply, gasoline prices and other economic factors.
 

NADA Segment Average AuctionNet® Wholesale Price 2-Week v. Current
4-Week Average 2-Week Average Current Week % Change $ Change
$10,700 $10,600 $10,525 -0.7% ($75)
$14,725 $14,675 $14,625 -0.3% ($50)
$15,600 $15,525 $15,450 -0.5% ($75)
$22,550 $22,375 $22,150 -1.0% ($225)
$28,500 $28,400 $28,400 0.0% $0
$20,625 $20,625 $20,600 -0.1% ($25)
$25,700 $25,725 $25,700 -0.1% ($25)
$12,175 $12,075 $12,000 -0.6% ($75)
$18,800 $18,650 $18,700 0.3% $50
$15,150 $14,900 $14,775 -0.8% ($125)