An increase in used-vehicle supply coupled with heightened incentive activity will push used-car prices down by 5.2 percent below current levels by 2019, according to RVI Group’s recently released Risk Outlook report.

RVI predicts that leasing will increase through 2018, putting a growing supply of used vehicles into the market through 2020.

According to Polk Automotive Data included in the report, the lease penetration rate for the first quarter of 2016 was 23.4 percent of total sales, a 2.8-percent increase over the previous quarter and the highest lease penetration rate on record since 1992.

And RVI’s lease-supply index, which measures off-lease supply, was up 21 percent in May compared to a year ago.

In May, incentives were 8.9 percent of MSRP, an increase of 7.8 percent from a year ago. RVI predicts incentive activity will grow over the several years, reaching 9.6 percent by 2018.

The report takes a particular look at small SUVs, with RVI predicting that residual values in this segment will drop 9.6 percent below current levels by 2019. While the supply of small SUVs has decreased over the last two years, RVI expected to see a significant increase in supply over the next three years.