After October’s wholesale price tumble, the rate of decline softened in November to 1.5 percent, according to NADA, and the trend is continuing as December’s auction price movement is predicted to mirror the previous month.

NADA is forecasted that auction prices will fall 1.5 percent this month, matching November’s rate, in the December edition of the Guidelines report.

This prediction comes after November’s decline pushed the NADA seasonally adjusted used vehicle price index to its highest point ever of 125.6.

"November's decline in the rate of depreciation can be credited to favorable market conditions, lower unemployment, moderating gas prices and advantageous credit conditions, including the end of the federal government shutdown in October," said Jonathan Banks, executive automotive analyst of the NADA Used Car Guide.

Traditionally, December’s rate of depreciation tends to be similar to November’s, according to the report, and this year is no different.

With an expected 1.5-percent sequential decline for the month of December, NADA is predicting that "barring an unexpectedly severe drop," used prices on an annual basis should grow for the fifth year in a row. Specifically, they would close out the year slightly higher than 2012’s record high average of $15,402.

Analysis from Black Book also has found similar price movements in November and December. Editorial director and senior vice president Ricky Beggs found that this past week, the average price decline for cars was a drop of $72, the largest declining amount over the past four weeks, showing similar trends as November movement.

For trucks, the average segment decline has increased each of the past three weeks to a drop of $59 this past week, Beggs shared in his latest "Beggs on the Used Car Market" video report.

The compact SUVs and the compact crossovers had the smallest dollar changes at -$19 and -$22 respectively, as the truck segments continue to show strong retention rates this year.

Full-size pickups with a decline of $35 also had their smallest weekly change over the past five weeks.

So what’s in store for the rest of 2013 and beyond?

Beggs reported that as the holiday season approaches, "There is no question the volume of cars and trucks changing hands will be way down for the rest of the year. The value of the change will all be determined by the willingness of the sellers to accept a possibly less aggressive bid from any potential buyers."

Over at NADA, analysts offered a few predictions beyond the monthly changes. According to Guidelines, wholesale prices are expected to grow by 2 percent through the first quarter of 2014.

NADA explained that if the federal budget is settled prior to January’s deadline, "used-vehicle prices should experience a familiar seasonal bounce in the first quarter."

That said, this "bounce" won’t dictate the trend for the rest of 2014. NADA is predicting that continually expanding used-vehicle supply will push prices down and break the cycle of year-over-year wholesale price hikes.

In other words, don’t expect 2014 to be a sixth year in a row of year-over-year wholesale price hikes.

"Although certain market fundamentals are expected to remain supportive of auto sales — (higher) home prices, (lower) unemployment, (moderating gas prices), and (advantageous) credit conditions — a continued rise in late-model used supply will increasingly apply downward pressure to used prices," Banks said in the report.

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