You can expect 3.1 million off-lease units to hit the market this year, which is 800,000 more than there were in 2015, according to a data in a presentation from NADA Used Car Guide at last week’s NADA Convention & Expo.
This is expected to drive late-model supply to 13.4 million units this year, which beats last year’s figure by 12 percent, NADA UCG says, and would be the largest pool of cars 5 years and under since 2008.
That means more pickings for automaker certified pre-owned programs, which are on pace to reach another record year of sales.
And this cornucopia of cars in the CPO age range is, again, driven by a swarm of cars coming off lease.
That begs the question: where will off-lease cars be most prevalent?
Experian Automotive, in its presentation during an NADA Convention press conference, answers that both from a vehicle and geographic standpoint.
According to Experian’s data set, the Toyota Camry is expected to be the most common car coming off lease, with around 25,000 units returning to market. The Honda Civic is not far behind, with a shade under 25,000 coming off-lease.
The Honda Accord is next at approximately 20,000 off-lease units, followed by the Toyota Corolla, which is projected to have about halfway between 15,000 and 20,000 off-leases.
The Honda CR-V and Ford Escape are neck-and-neck, with Experian forecasting about 15,000 lease returns for each of those models.
Rounding out the top 10 are the Nissan Altima at No. 7 and Ford Fusion in eighth (both under 15,000), followed by the Lexus RX350 at No. 9 and the Toyota RAV4 in 1Oth. (both between 10,000 and 15,000 lease returns).
Geographically, here are the 10 market areas for consumer off-lease units, based on total estimated market count, according to Experian:
New York: 306,812
Los Angeles: 231,814
Miami-Fort Lauderdale: 81,670
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose: 56,183
Cleveland-Akron (Canton): 45,641
Boston (Manchester): 41,923
West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce: 33,368