Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb and Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams agree that the Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates unchanged after this week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee concludes.

What constituted most of their commentaries shared on Monday focused on the Fed’s future, including the role of current chair Jerome Powell, especially amid a complex economic environment inflamed by the Middle East conflict.

“Last week brought a significant moment for monetary policy: Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, where he pledged that central bank independence ‘is essential’ and vowed he would not be politically directed on rate decisions, while signaling plans for what he calls ‘regime change,’ including a new inflation framework and a reduced reliance on forward guidance,” Robb said in his online analysis.

“His path to confirmation cleared meaningfully on Friday, as the Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation into current chair Jerome Powell — the hurdle that had led Sen. Thom Tillis to block a confirmation vote,” Robb continued.

Robb then explained that elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict continue to cloud the inflation outlook and diminish any near-term case for easing the federal funds rate, which currently sits at 3.50 to 3.75%.

And AAA reported on Wednesday that the average price for a gallon of gas is at $4.22 in the U.S. Robb mentioned prices at the pump have climbed 36% since the Middle East conflict began this spring.

“For consumers and dealers, the macro picture remains a study in competing forces,” Robb said. “Tax refunds continue to provide a meaningful stimulus, though for many households, those extra dollars are being absorbed at the pump rather than flowing into discretionary spending. New-vehicle affordability improved in March, and retail sales posted their strongest monthly gain in decades. Consumer sentiment, however, deteriorated sharply.

“The spring selling season remains intact, but the window for translating refund dollars and credit availability into vehicle sales is closing, as energy prices remain elevated,” he added.

Adams agreed that the Fed is expected to hold rates steady during what is likely to be the final decision of Powell’s term as Fed chair.

“The post-meeting press conference will probably focus on Powell’s future and legacy,” Adams said. “Will he retire, now that the Justice Department has announced it is dropping the probe into his conduct as chair? Powell said after the Fed’s March decision that he has ‘no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over,’ and Sen. Thom Tillis blocked the confirmation of Powell’s successor until he is satisfied the probe is resolved.

“Powell’s term as governor runs on a separate timeline from his term as chair and extends into early 2028, so he could continue serving as acting chair until President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh is confirmed and stay on as a governor even longer if he believes it is necessary to protect the Fed’s independence,” Adams went on to say.