Optimism while watching four potential headwinds.

That’s the summary of new snapshot survey about the state of automotive financing from Credit Union Leasing of America (CULA).

The project reveals increased credit union optimism compared to last year about their auto-finance portfolio growth, while also exposing concerns about rising vehicle prices, financial uncertainty, delinquencies and inflation.

CULA pointed out that uneasiness about tariffs and interest rates, which were dominant a year ago, have diminished significantly, even as the Iran conflict is having little impact on their outlook for the auto-finance landscape

At least, thus far.

Demonstrating significant confidence in the coming 12 months, CULA said 67% of credit unions surveyed expect their auto portfolios to grow, while 24% project their portfolios to remain the same, leaving only 9% anticipating a decline.

“So, it is no surprise that the majority feel optimistic about the next six months, although that is tempered by the 47% who reported that, while not pessimistic, they are apprehensive,” CULA said in a news release.

Other key takeaways from the survey conducted during the second quarter included:

—Declining interest rates (57%) and a portfolio of finance products that offer members options to help with affordability (50%) were the biggest contributors to credit union optimism

—Of the 47% who are apprehensive, continuing inflation, financial uncertainty and rising delinquencies are top concerns

—77% said “vehicle prices will continue to increase,” 46% anticipate that “interest rates will decrease,” and 44% expect “credit standards to tighten” in the next 12 months

—53% do not expect the uncertainty around tariffs to continue to impact consumer vehicle purchasing decisions through 2026

—72% expect more of their members to choose a vehicle lease over a loan in the next six months

—98% cited leasing’s combination of affordability and flexibility as the reasons why their members opt to lease

“Our survey from summer 2025 showed that credit unions expected vehicle prices to increase, and they were certainly right about that,” CULA president Ken Sopp said in the news release.

“As concerns about tariffs have given way in 2026 to worries about delinquencies, inflation, and affordability, credit unions, nevertheless, expect their auto finance portfolios to grow, along with the number of their members opting for leasing. This makes sense given that the average vehicle lease payment is $151 less than the average loan payment,” Sopp continued.

With affordability top of mind, 72% of credit union respondents said they expected more of their members to choose a vehicle lease over a loan in the next six months. Leasing’s combination of affordability and flexibility were cited by 98% as the reasons why their members opt to lease.

As the survey was fielded before the Iran conflict had escalated, CULA followed up in May with a sampling of survey takers.

Of those specific participants, 38% expressed worry about the impact of the continuing Iran situation, while 62% said they remain optimistic, or that it had not yet impacted their outlook.

“Credit unions are used to weathering the ups and downs of the macroeconomic landscape and never has that been truer than today,” said Chris Harper, who director of business development for CULA. “It remains to be seen what the overall impact of the Iran situation will be; but rising gas prices and supply chain issues have the potential to take a further toll on vehicle prices, a major concern of our survey takers.

“Nevertheless, as this survey shows, staying the course and focusing on financial products, such as leasing, that will help their members navigate our uncertain financial environment continues to be job one for credit unions,” Harper went on to say.