Experts continue to see mixed signals about employment and the job market; perhaps exacerbating the ongoing conundrum finance companies have about keeping their auto portfolios healthy and adding new paper.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate “changed little” at 4.3%. Officials said job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs.

Meanwhile, the January ADP National Employment Report produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab showed private sector employment increased by 22,000 jobs in January and pay was up 4.5% year-over-year.

“Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a news release. “While we’ve seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable.”

If wage growth, in fact, is stable, it might not be reflected in consumer confidence.

Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams and senior economist Waran Bhahirethan recapped the soft sentiment scene on Monday.

“Consumer surveys were weaker in January,” Adams and Bhahirethan said in an analysis. “The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment indicator rose to the strongest since last August but was still well below its long-run average.

“More concerning, The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged to the lowest since 2014 — worse even than during the 2020 lockdown. Turmoil in Minneapolis and harsh winter weather across much of the nation likely contributed to volatility in the surveys,” the Comerica Bank experts continued.

The consumer sentiment readings also concern newly installed Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb, who said the January data “reveals a cautious start to 2026,” with softer new-car sales but strength in the used-vehicle market.

Whether it’s committing to acquire a used vehicle or a new model, Robb emphasized it’s a consumer’s belief in their steady employment and income that will be the determinant, especially now.

“The labor market is showing early signs of cooling that warrant attention: job openings plunged to their lowest level since September 2020, falling by over 1 million in just three months as employers pull back hiring plans. While jobless claims remain below distress levels, this forward-looking indicator suggests potential headwinds for consumer spending on big-ticket purchases,” Robb wrote Monday in his Auto Market Weekly Summary.

“At the same time, consumer sentiment improved modestly in February, and tax refund season is now underway, putting additional dollars in consumers’ pockets that could support near-term traffic and sales,” he continued. “Overall consumer credit grew 3.3% year over year in December, with revolving credit finally turning positive, though vehicle loan balances contracted for the second consecutive quarter, signaling continued consumer caution, particularly in auto financing.

“Two wildcards bear watching: Consumers expect 3.5% inflation over the next year, higher than current forecasts and, if accurate given their recent track record, a potential constraint on Fed rate cuts and on financing affordability,” Robb went on to say.

“Additionally, significant stock market volatility this week, driven by concerns about AI and technology valuations, could impact wealth effects and consumer confidence, particularly for higher-end vehicle segments. The spring selling season will test whether near-term positives from tax refunds and used-vehicle strength can offset broader economic uncertainty.”