It’s the puzzle that dealerships and finance companies have had to solve since the start of awarding credit to deliver a vehicle.

You likely must have a car to get a job, and you likely have to have a job to get a car.

With that situation and more in mind, experts at Cox Automotive and the Conference Board this week tried to make sense of the job market based on the latest federal government data and other analyses.

Let’s begin with Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb, who wrote on Monday, “The employment report arrived a week late but delivered a gut punch to what had looked like modest job growth: Preliminary benchmark revisions slashed 2025 job creation from 584,000 to just 181,000 — a stunning 69% reduction that brings the monthly average down to a mere 15,000.

“While January’s 130,000 added jobs beat expectations, the revised full-year picture reveals an economy creating far fewer jobs than initially reported, potentially strengthening the case for Fed rate cuts this year despite inflation remaining above target,” Robb continued.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased in January to 105.06, from an upwardly revised 104.51 in December.

The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

“The ETI’s rise in January reflected a stronger-than-expected employment report with healthy payroll growth,” said Mitchell Barnes, an economist at the Conference Board. “Unemployment and layoffs continue to remain mild, suggesting that the labor market is in balance despite a low 2025 hiring rate.”

Barnes pointed out in a news release that initial claims for unemployment insurance declined in January, continuing to fall from mid-2025 highs. The share of involuntary part-time workers also declined in January, to 17.6%, its lowest percentage since September.

Barnes also mentioned real manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production continued to show steadiness despite other measures of manufacturing activity and employment indicating contraction.

“While most labor market indicators suggest relative stability, the confidence of consumers and businesses point in a negative direction,” Barnes said. “It remains to be seen whether 2026 will continue the theme of a low-hire, low-fire environment.”

Barnes added that the share of consumers who report “jobs are hard to get” — an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey — rose to 20.8% in January to reach the highest point since early 2021.

He noted the share of small firms reporting that jobs are “not able to be filled right now” fell to a post-pandemic low of 31% in January, while the net share of small firm’s that plan to increase employment fell to a three-month low.

Perhaps making the procurement of a vehicle all the more important, bringing us back to Robb, who highlighted that credit conditions remained accommodative in January with the Dealertrack Credit Availability Index holding at 100.0, matching its best level since October 2022.

“However, the steady headline masks rising risk signals underneath: Negative equity surged to 56.3%, subprime share climbed to 15.7%, and yield spreads widened 31 basis points – suggesting lenders are pricing in additional risk even as they expand access,” Robb said.

“The New York Fed’s Q4 Household Debt and Credit report reinforces these concerns, showing median credit scores for new auto loans falling from 724 to 716 and subprime originations surging 12% year over year. Auto loan balances barely budged despite improving credit availability, suggesting consumers remain cautious about taking on vehicle debt even as lenders relax standards,” he continued.

What might aid all parties involved are federal income tax refunds. The Internal Revenue Service will offer an update on the amount of refunds processed and the average amounts at the end of this week.

Until then?

“For dealers, the combination of dramatically weaker job creation, elevated but easing inflation, and credit that’s flowing but carrying more risk creates a complex environment heading into tax refund season,” Robb said.