The Federal Open Market Committee began its regularly scheduled meeting on Tuesday as Federal Reserve policymakers will finish their gatherings on Wednesday by announcing their decision involving the federal funds rate, which hasn’t been adjusted since December.

Among the array of data points the Fed might consider, U.S. private employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week for the four weeks that ended Aug. 29, according to the NER Pulse, a weekly update of the monthly ADP National Employment Report (NER).

While the reading represented a hiring increase for the second straight week, experts remain unsettled about what the movements mean for paychecks. Here are more September details, according to ADP Pay Insights:

—For all private-sector workers in the United States, base pay rose 3.2% and gross pay was up 4.7% year over year

—Base pay for job-stayers rose 3.0% year-over-year; base pay for job-changers increased 4.7%

—Gross pay for job-stayers rose 4.4% year-over year; gross pay for job-changers increased 7.3%

“Pay can tell us a lot about today’s choppy hiring. To understand hiring patterns, you have to look deeply into where pay growth is accelerating, where it’s slowing, and for whom,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a news release. “Once predictable wage growth has been overtaken by complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI’s effects on jobs.”

Car buyers having gainful employment certainly are crucial for the success of dealerships and lenders. Cox Automotive chief economist Jeremy Robb explored several other parts of the equation that the Fed is likely examining while considering an interest-rate adjustment.

“Diesel prices crossing $6 per gallon for the first time is the story to watch, given how essential the fuel is to moving goods and vehicles around the country,” Robb wrote in an analysis posted on Monday. “The news arrived alongside an August inflation report showing producer prices accelerating to 5.4% year-over-year and consumer prices holding at 3.4%.

“In addition, Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan survey showed one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.6% from 4%. This forward-looking measure is watched closely by Federal Reserve officials, and it arrives at the wrong moment for anyone hoping the Federal Open Market Committee might hold rates steady this week,” Robb continued.

“Underneath those headlines, consumers are under strain as the Middle East conflict shows no resolution. Real wage growth has turned negative for five consecutive months, with inflation outpacing income gains by 0.3% year-over-year in August,” he added.

Robb also mentioned Fed funds futures show an 86% probability of a rate increase this week, up from 59% a week earlier, “making the case for holding rates increasingly difficult to defend, particularly as dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee has been rising.”

How should professionals in the car business react to what’s going on with Fed policymakers?

“For the auto market, the effect on consumer loans is beginning to bite,” Robb wrote. “New-vehicle loan annual percentage rates have risen 35 basis points since July, and used-vehicle loan rates are up 11 basis points over the same period. The increases are not insurmountable, but they signal a more expensive financing environment ahead.

“The auto market has been one of the economy’s most resilient sectors this year, supported by the oldest vehicle fleet in history and a substantial backlog of pent-up demand,” he continued. “That structural support will not vanish overnight.

“But with diesel at record highs, real wages negative for five consecutive months and a rate increase appearing increasingly likely this week, consumer fatigue is a real risk. Auto loan rates are likely to follow Treasury yields higher, and financing costs may help determine whether the market’s resilience holds through year-end,” Robb went on to note.