Auto Loan ABS Losses Inch Higher In February

The latest index results from Fitch Ratings showed both prime and subprime annualized losses inched higher in February as asset performance softened somewhat during the past six months.
However, analysts insisted loss rates are still at historically low levels and only marginally off the record low levels recorded in 2012 and 2013.
“Fitch expects losses to improve in March and April as tax refunds provide a temporary uplift to consumer’s cash-flow,” analysts said.
In the prime sector, Fitch indicated 60-day delinquencies were flat in February at 0.39 percent versus January, and 5 percent below the level recorded in February of last year. The firm noted prime annualized net losses ticked up slightly in February month-over-month to 0.49 percent from 0.48 percent in the previous month.
Analysts pointed out February’s annualized net losses rate of 0.49 percent in the prime market was the highest level in two years, and 23 percent above February of last year.
“Despite this, the loss rate last month was within range of mid-2011 levels, and still below 2001 through 2010 levels, which ranged from 0.52 percent to 2.23 percent,” analysts said.
Turning next to the subprime market, Fitch highlighted delinquencies dropped 1 percent month-over-month through February, “a good sign for asset performance in coming months.”
Analysts indicated subprime 60-day delinquencies stood at 3.80 percent in February, down from 3.84 percent recorded in the prior months.
Fitch determined subprime annualized net losses rose 7.5 percent month-over-month to 6.91 percent in February, settling 25 percent higher than a year earlier. Analysts said the reason was “performance softened over the past year.
“Consistent with the prime sector, loss rates are still well within loss rates recorded in the strong 2010 through 2013 period,” they added.
Fitch continued its latest update by mentioning used-vehicle values were relatively flat in February as “both demand and sales of used vehicles received support from bolstered income levels due to tax refunds.”
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index stood at 123.3 in February, marking a 1-percent increase over February of 2013.
“The winter weather continues to stunt consumer shopping and auto sales slowed in recent months, but this may change in coming months particularly if manufacturers boost incentives to draw consumers into showrooms,” analysts said.
On the ratings front, Fitch upgraded 18 classes of notes through early March, up from 13 upgrades issued during the same time in 2013. Of these 18 upgrades, 12 were issued on prime auto loan ABS transactions and six on subprime transactions.
“The ratings outlook is positive for 2014, and the sector outlook on asset performance is stable,” analysts said.